Hawaii as Future Swing State

Robin asked me to comment today on the latest polls which show the Presidential race approaching too close to call in... Hawaii (4 electoral votes). Which went for Dukakis in '88. By 9 points. And had Gore over Dubyah by 19 points a mere four years ago. It's a pretty stunning development if true, but is it true, and if so what does it mean?

Well, I don't honestly think the suggestion can be taken at face value. Hawaii will go for Kerry in '04, have no fear. The fact that some organizations are coming close to suggesting otherwise is - to that degree - merely an indication of their own biases (Gallup, I'm looking at you here).

However, I do believe we will come to look back on the 2004 election in Hawaii as the end of an era. The Democrats have had their way with Hawaii ever since Statehood. We finally got a Republican governor in '02 (go Linda!), and she has been able to turn things around locally. She has made the health of the State's economy - above and beyond the usual soaking of tourists (11.5% hotel room tax) - a priority. In addition, she and my Dad have been working hard to improve public schools via devolution of power to local districts. This surprises people from the mainland, but in Hawaii it has been the Republicans (and my Dad) fighting for fair (=progressive) taxation, and against Democratic proposals to raise the sales tax (which applies to gasoline and food). No, I'm not kidding. The Democrats over the years became too invested in the bureaucracy and programs of the State government, such that they were willing to tax anything and everything in sight to keep the budget in balance.

It was only natural that the people of the State would eventually tire of these shenanigans (Remember how great that 90's boom was? Not in Hawaii!) and give the Republicans a chance. For the last few years, though, they have remained strongly on the Democratic side in national politics.

And yet, nothing lasts forever. Here as in America's traditional South, there is a religious majority that can be won over with a morality-based appeal. Intriguingly, the religion in question is not strictly evangelical Christian, but includes a large admixture of Buddhist and associated East Asian beliefs. None of these faiths much cottons to homosexuality, though - hence the resounding passage of our State Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage in 1998 (first in the US!). That referendum was a real surprise to me, who had been out of state since the start of the controversy, and while away had been caught up in the post-AIDS surge towards full and unremarkable equal rights for gays. How was this happening in my Hawaii? Who were these people?

I'm still not completely sure, but whoever they are, they ceased being down-the-line Democrats (in the national sense) with that vote six years ago. And it does not surprise me that, in the years that have passed since then, they have been pulling the state closer to the center of our national politics, as well.

Who knows? In 2008 we may even get a couple of Presidential campaign photo-ops.