Making Movies is REALLY Expensive

Almost daily, it seems, we are exposed to the multimillion-dollar budget figures for new movie releases - often enough that the tendency is to grow completely inured to them. "Oh yeah - $180m for Matrix 3; that sounds about right."

And yet the truth is that these are really astounding quantities of money for businesses that, from first employee hire to final burn-out, rarely last more than two years. And nothing brings that fact home like an honest-to-goodness big-budget movie coming to film on-location on your block.

That's right - THE SHAGGY DOG (2005) is filming at Colorado & Sierra Madre tomorrow. We saw the first signs this morning, when the entire north side of Mohawk Street was signed off-limits for parking (west side of Sierra Madre too). Looking around, I noticed some windbreaker-jacketed guys from "Reel Security" waving at each other and coordinating the removal of the last hold-outs. Driving home after sunset tonight we saw the trucks and StarWaggons gathering like cattle before the storm. Staff from Reel Security are posted at every corner and in the middle of every block - they have been here all day, and look ready to stick it out through the night. At home we found a flyer on our doorstep explaining the disruption - which lasts throughout tomorrow - and the shot:

The scene involves the Shaggy Dog running down the sidewalk on the South side of Colorado Blvd from Sierra Madre to the West for 200 feet.

So... like I said: Making movies is really expensive.

Brooks Blows Again

David Brooks' apparently doesn't like what he sees on TV. After Sunday's dust-up on Meet the Press between Jerry Falwell (former leader of the right-wing Moral Majority) and Democratic Presidential contender Al Sharpton (and ordained minister), Brooks says neither are the face of Christianity in American public life -- that mantle belongs to John Stott.

Never mind, Brooks says, that nobody knows John Stott. Brooks likes him. And therefore, Brooks concludes, Stott must be the pope of American Christian Right. Oh, apparently, Stott doesn't lead any American groups, isn't involved in politics, and has never appeared on any news shows.

By this line of reasoning, Betty Crocker is as much a leader of the Christian Right as John Stott -- just as many evangelicals read her books, if not more. However, having your books read by people doesn't constitute leadership of them (pace, Brooks -- I know you fight hard for your books to be read at all).

Brooks seems to be under the impression that if things seem to be a particular way to him, then they are that way. However, there's no argument that even one Evangelical Christian read any of Stott's books and, as a result, adopted Stott's line. The opinions Brooks attributes to Stotts (pro-life, pro death penalty) are no different from those espoused by evangelical preachers the country over -- and Brooks doesn't argue that these opinions have historical roots in Stott, instead of heated discussions over the church BBQ.

So, why do I say "Brooks blows again?" Such an unkind thing to say. It's because Brooks is bad at laying out reasoned arguments supporting his plantive statements. His article's conclusions ("Stott the king of Evangelicals") is Wyle-E-Coyote-like suspended in air. He makes no argument that evangelical 1 has ever been influenced by him. So, Brooks is just saying "This is my opinion." Which, you can do. But it fails to be convincing.

Hollywood Visuals Come to Iraq

A severe set-back in the Iraq war has been the indistinctive and visually difficult desert terrain -- the kind of terrain which held the movie Three Kings in the $60M range, barely recouping its $48M outlay --- while Vietnam era-set films become runaway blockbusters while feasting on jungle exteriors -- like Apooclypse Now, Platoon, and Good Morning, Vietnam! John Ford knew what to do with the American desert, but even his exteriors were most notable when there was something recognizable to focus on in the distance -- a rocky prominence, say. This leaves Hollywood in a bind -- you've seen one dusty road 20 miles out of Baghdad, and you've done the trip. Back to the hotel! So, what to do?

Well, the NYTimes has found the jungle exteriors!

Seems there are a few rivers in Iraq on which patrol boats can wade. Sure, we've known the coastline is always there (hey, do Iraqis surf?), but there can't be any filmic-based introspection unless a visually stunning metaphor for spiritual journey runs through it. Even Mark Twain knew you've got to go up river, down river, or down to the river to get the skin of the story onto weighty moral bones -- and now that the US military has found the rivers in Iraq, we can expect the movies to come.

Why you don't want to hold stock in the Washington Post

The Washington Post sat down a bunch of young people to try to get a sense of how they might improve circulation among this advertiser-favored demographic. The conclusion? They can't.

When the Post offered to deliver the paper to the panelists' doorsteps for free, they said they still wouldn't want to subscribe because - wait for it - they didn't like the thought of all that newspaper piling up around the house.

All in all, they'd really rather be getting their news online. It's free, there's a great selection, and it doesn't make a mess. So... that hissing you're hearing? It's the sound of market capitalization slowing leaking out of the inflated bubbles that are the NYT, Times-Mirror, WaPo, & Co.

From the Wired News Story.

Rumsfeld's got Bush's back

No worries, Mr. President - your SecDef is right behind you in supporting the 9/11 Commission Intelligence Reform bill that those devious House Republicans tried to can last week.

I can see it now:

I should warn you ahead of time, Mr. President, that my best efforts may not be enough to convince them to change their minds. They're stubborn folk, and once they've got their minds and political reputations set on something, well...

JFK Reloaded

A few weeks ago, I mentioned a gaming company idea to Bob. This company would create video games based on historical atrocities. You could have games such as "Trail of Tears: the First Person Shooter", torture game engines that would run games like "The Inquisition", and "1492 Spain: the Cleansing". This company would benefit from these titles in several ways:

1. The company wouldn't need to generate any creative ideas. It would just draw on historical accuracy.
2. The company would not need an advertising budget. The negative press generated by these gruesome titles would send kids drooling to their nearest video game store to pick up a copy.

Well, it turns out yesterday that a company has already beat me to the punch. JFK Reloaded is a game that puts you in the mindset of Lee Harvey Oswald, attempting to assasinate JFK. You score points by hitting the President as historically accurate as possible. You lose point by hitting others such as Jackie, or anyone else riding in the motorcade. You can view your attempts close up, or from various angles, including the angle at which the Zapruder film was shot.

These games will ultimately be educational for our youngsters. How many of these players would know what the Zapruder film was, or how many shots the President took in this assasination. Will they be able to try their luck from the Grassy Knoll?

I'm just waiting for "Crusades: the Massive Multiplayer Online Game", where you have to choose sides before signing up, then attempt to attack or defend the holy land. These are million dollar ideas folks.

Horrible, horrible million dollar ideas.

My New Fighting Technique

Over at My New Fighting Technique is Unstoppable, there's an inspirational message for post-election Dems, allegedly by Deepak Chopra.

The Baroque Cycle

Over at BoingBoing, Cory Doctorow has posted his impressions on completing the last volume of The Baroque Cycle, Neal Stephenson's 3-volume 2700-page super-novel about the Age of Enlightenment and how the contemporaneous invention of the calculus, money, mass-market newspapers, and steam power gave birth at that time to a new System of the World.

I've also recently finished reading the complete work, and heartily enjoyed almost every chapter. If some sections are hard slogs... well, I was inclined to tolerance, not having written many 2700-page works myself lately. I don't think love stories are Stephenson's forte, although he attempts a couple. The payoff comes during the interludes when he has you convincingly inhabiting 18th century Europe (or its colonial outposts), interacting with the natural philosophers and bankers who bequeathed us most of the power over the natural world we now take for granted.

It was a tremendously exciting time if you were moving in the right circles. Stephenson gets that, and he gets enough of the underlying science and economics and history and politics right to get that feeling across in convincing fashion. In the process, he has spun himself - and the rest of us - quite an enchanting yarn.

Rumsfeld: Loose Canon, or Bush's Canon?

Apparently, the Pentagon drove the Congress to rejecting Intelligence reform -- protecting their $36B budget, defeating the primary recommendation of the 9/11 commission. The way the Pentagon did this was they had the House Committee on Armed Services chair Representative Duncan Hunter declare to the Republican caucus that he would not allow the bill to pass through his committee. Thus, even though the Democrats and Republicans are willing to pass the bill -- a minority of Republicans opposed it, but the bill has a majority in the House -- Speaker Hastert declared the bill dead.

The question is, then -- did Bush permit Rumsfeld to do this, in which case Bush is responsible for defeating the 9/11 commission's recommendation, or did he oppose Rumsfeld, in which case Bush lost a political battle to his Secretary of Defense? Is Rumsfeld working against Bush, or at the behest of Bush? Is he a loose canon, or Bush's canon?

Bush/Cheney Let Intelligence Reform Die, Pin it on Armed Services, Judiciary

Reformation of the nation's Intelligence apparatus, the key recommendation of the 9/11 comisssion, has been allowed to die in the House. Hastert shakes his head woefully, we tried and tried, he says.

Rep. Duncan Hunter, Chair of the Armed Services committee, says the bill takes battlefield intelligence out of Pentagon control. As we all know, 80% of the national ingelligence budget is under the Secretary of Defense. Hunter's protecting Rumsfeld's fieifdom.

Rep. Jim Sensebrenner, Chair of Judiciary, says the bill doesn't deal properly with illegal immigration -- which is about as directly relevant to intelligence reform as a good egg salad recipe -- the kind of thing which is put in to get horses, and is taken out in horse trading. Clearly, the administration isn't trading even for an egg-salad horse.

Bush's administration doesn't want intelligence reform, and they aren't pushing on the House to get it. They're happy to see it die, and let someone else take the blame.

Have a good egg-salad recipe? Post it here. We'll send the best one to Sensebrenner.

In Bizarre Twist, Bush executes retarded; pardons Turkey

Not that the turkey hurt anyone (in fact, Bush seems a bit pleased in this picture), , Bush still thought it was a good idea to have the mentally retarded executed. Maybe he's getting soft in his old age. .

I Need more erototoxins

Apparently, much worse than the crack epidemic, is the Internet porn epidemic. Viewing Internet porn releases "erototoxins".

Not content to just winning the election, the religious right is now making up stuff to crusade against.

Erototoxins, indeed.

Dahlia on the Loyalty Oath

Over at Slate, Dahlia Lithwick has a concise piece, presented with her usual wit, on the new Republican penchant for direct loyalty oaths to our President over musty old traditions like the swearing of fealty to the Constitution.

See also: My post on the recent Ashcroft speech decrying the existence of an independent judiciary in our country, and Bob's recent post on the emasculation of Arlen Specter.

Grey Album goes Video

Outstanding mash-up video creation for the "Encore" track from the Grey Album available here.

Utterly illegal, of course, just like much of our truly creative art these days. Get it while it's still downloadable.

When 1 and 1 Equals War

Here's two facts:

1. Bush now sees Iran's nuclear potential as a major threat to the US requiring confrontation, economic sanctions, military action, or "regime change". Perhaps we can think Colin Powell for giving his parthian shot yesterday, declaring the Iranians' nuclear ambitions were a problem for the US -- perhaps throwing Bush into that Briar patch, the one which looks all thorny with geopolitical intrigue, but is Bush's favorite place in all the world.

2. The US continues to have insurgent trouble in Iraq even as the country approaches a democratic election in January, and trains more and more Iraqi army forces.

Neither of these two issues play supremely well at home. How to stop the Iranians in their tracks? How to firm up Iraq's government and put down the insurgency? We have no credible threat toward Iran, since our army is stretched thin in Iraq.

I'll tell you how, if you're a member of Bush's Cheney/Rice/Rumsfeld troika: you train the Iraqi Army, and start that country on a war footing toward Iran. Iraq played the war in the 1980s to a draw, and, golly, wouldn't they like to have another shot, this time with US backing?

Thanksgiving: A Short Week Away

We're almost there, and I'm looking forward to my trip to New York -- a short flight from Montreal -- to spend with my brother Bill, his wife Emily, and her grand family. Chefs note the recipes for Thanksgiving hit the food sections this week -- including a nice article on smoking turkeys, both indoors and out, in the NYTimes.

From the "could be bad" department -- flight attendants are voting today on a strike, to employ a technique of work stoppage following random patterns. They could stop work system-wide for one day, stop only flights leaving Denver, stop everyone in NYC-DC corrider. The attendants are striking against companies in bankruptcy re-negotiating their contracts.

National Book Awards: Robin Left Off the Short-List Again

Today, the winner of the National Book Award will be announced, and I'm sad to say that our own Robin Dennis yet again did not make the five-long shortlist. Seeing that all five of the nominees for this year's award are women living in New York City, I fail to see, short of conspiracy inside the secret star-chamber of the nomination process, what has kept Robin off this list. That she didn't write a book this last year hardly seems material. Did any of the other nominees? They did? Oh. Well, but they are all women living in New York City, and there, Robin is also another woman living in New York City. She's got them in spades!

It just doesn't make any sense. Better luck next year, Robin. Although, I hear that next year they'll be possibly focusing on the outer boroughs.

Indicted? No Problem If you're Tom DeLay.

Usually, being criminally indicted would bring shame on the Congress, and members who are convicted of a crime find themselves removed from office. Well, not so if you're Tom DeLay.

Seems that DeLay is having the Republican House change the rules, so that when his indictment is handed down in Texas for illegally raising political funds from corporations in 2002 (that is, the charges that three of his political aides have already been indicted for), he can continue serving as the Majority Leader.

Should we be embarrassed by this? Yes, we should. Our leadership should not have even the whiff of corruption about them. Tom DeLay doesn't only have a whiff -- he's probably guilty. Which means that eventually, he'll be convicted. When that happens, it will reflect on the Republican party that they circle the wagons around their own -- regardless of their reckless violations of the law.

Rumsfeld has not discussed his future with Bush

Doesn't Rummy intend to consult wiith Bush before he declares himself Secretary of Defense again? Or is he simply avoiding the President's eye contact, while Bush carries the axe?

Music is Not a Loaf of Bread

Quoth Jeff Tweedy, the lead singer of Wilco, in his interview with Xeni Jardin today over at Wired News.

When common sense is heresy, and nonsense ("Our business is tanking - let's sue our customers or throw them in jail!") orthodoxy, I think you can safely state that a revolution is under way. That ground there, beneath our feet? It's shifting.

At the movie theater last night Erica and I paid $21.50 (including parking) for the joy and privilege of watching The Incredibles - a great, great movie - and for our law-abiding trouble were subjected to a three-minute guitar-riffing screed - cut with the sort of fast, jerky camera work that makes Erica nauseous - on the subject "Downloading free movies is stealing. Buying pirated movies is stealing. Illegal downloading: Inappropriate for all ages." One more reason to download that next theatrical release over BitTorrent.

The television companies can't make a decent HDTV for less than $3,000, it seems, and I can't get HDTV content over my local cable - if I want HDTV I need to hook up an actual antenna. If I also fork over $1,000 for an HDTV-compatible TiVO, I might actually get the chance to watch some shows. But over here in the office, HDTV versions of every current TV show are available for the asking, via BT and a $1500 computer (here's a cute way to get your PC to impersonate an HDTV TiVO). On our LCD flatscreen the shows looks fantastic. Oh - and did I mention? No commercials.

So Erica and I sit in our office, with our G4 and our flatscreen and our broadband connection, and we dim the lights, and from our futon we watch as Hollywood burns.

Condi Gets Secretary of State: Bush Reveals Lack of Confidence, Demand for Loyalty

Rice is the next Secretary of State according to Senior Administration officials quoted in the NYTimes, the Associated Press and Reuters.

Funny thing, but Rummy says the subject of his resignation hasn't come up with Bush yet. Guess they have other things to talk about.

Okay, with the AG and State done -- that's two major appointments. Enough to connect the dots. Bush is appointing very, very close insiders -- specifically, people who are heavily politically indebted to him to the highest positions. He has not appointed anyone who is a political equal or even a modest heavyweight who might counter him -- they are people who are first and foremost loyal to him. He is looking to be the number one muther-fucker in charge this time around, and he doesn't want any lip from anyone. That betrays a lack of self-confidence on his part. It also means Cheney will have more than his say again, unless his cold keeps him down.

Even Bigger Than Powell Stepping Down: William Safire Retires from the Times.

He makes his final Op Ed appearance Jan 24 2005.

This leaves David Brooks as the conservative columnist. Perhaps he'll announce in his final column that it was he who was Woodward and Bernstein's Deep Throat, as I've long suspsected?

Colin Powell Resigns

Powell Resigns. He's told high aides and submitted his letter last Friday. Other resignations expected today.

This explains how he can go to Palestine next week and retain his credibility -- as a truly lame duck, he carries no endorsed portfolio or responsibility for the administration.

Powell: The Good Soldier, The Perpetually Beaten Dead Horse

When Tom Friedman suggested yesterday that George Bush turn to Powell and say (paraphrased): Colin, I want you to sit down with Israelis and Palestinians and forge a framework for a secure Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and progress toward a secure peace in the West Bank. Only this time I will stand with you. I will not let Rummy or Cheney fire any more arrows into your back. I don't want to see you back here until you've put our words into deeds.

This sounded hilarious. Bush has sent Powell there before, and while abroad, Rummy and Cheney launched broadsides, and when he came back with progress, it was treated Dead On Arrival. Powell's got 2 months before he retires from being the administration's perpetually beaten dead horse. He has worked to shore up credibility which has been spent by this administration, time and again (that is, they make a liar out of him). Powell wants to run for President in 2008, and as he leaves the administration why should he set up any efforts to be knocked down by Bush, yet again?

Because he's a good soldier, is why. He leaves next week. But, as the Palestinians prepare for a January vote on new leadership -- coinciding with Powell's likely departure -- watch for limited to no advancement in the peace process before than. Powell's visit is a simple sign of friendly normalcy, preparing continuity with new leadership, both in the US and in Palestine. There can't be any breakthroughs before then, because the Palestinian leadership does not carry either historical or electoral legitimacy.

Political Allegiance Demanded of Specter by Frist for Bush

Bill Frist is demanding that, for Arlen Specter to be given the chairmanship of the Senate Judiciary Committee as would be accorded him by seniority, he must pledge to support all of Bush's judicial nominees sight unseen -- an extraordinary demand. It can only be dismissed out of hand by Specter, unless he is to declare himself a rubber-stamp to the Executive Branch. It's unclear whether other Senators would support his threat. If other Senators agreed to enforce Frist's threat, it would herald an enfeebled Senate, violating the spirit of the separation of powers, when the majority leader demands allegiance to the Executive Branch to be accorded their recognized privileges.

The ODB, Dead at 35

Complained of chest pains before collapsing in a recording studio. He founded the Wu-Tang Clan. He grew infamous for his brushes with the law, which included drug charges, shoplifting and driving without a license. All in all, not one of your ganster gansta rappers.

Ashcroft denounces judiciary

You know, that "third branch" of our "balanced powers" system of government. The one that the Attorney General is supposed to coordinate Executive branch activities with. Well, our ex-AG has stated that the courts have no business interpreting the law.

Apparently, it's because judges are unelected and hence, unaccountable.

Best investing advice, ever

I've spoken to some of you about Henry Blodget's series of articles for Slate on personal investing - his "Wall Street Self Defense Guide" - and I recommend every article in the series, but his latest is quite honestly the best investing advice article, ever.

CIA Senior Managers Disgruntled, Leaving

The WaPost reports that the CIA is seeing resignations of its high-level officials. Also, today David Brooks reflects back on how, during the election, the CIA was leaking leaking leaking with information which undermined Bush's position -- most famously, the Agency approved a book "Imperial Hubris" by Anonymous (Michael Scheuer) which lambasted the President's foreign policy. And how, now that the election is over, it's time for Bush's payback. Brooks calls the White House-CIA relationship "dysfunctional", which seems an understatement -- it is, more accurately, adversarial.

What exactly is going on? Who knows? Probably a combination of career CIA officials having had their intelligence manipulated for political ends (the Iraq war), followed by getting hooked with the blame for "intelligence failures", which were really political failures of the intelligence apparatus. Resulting in, bingo, the complete reorganization of the nation's intelligence services, which effectively means doing away with the CIA.

Education Secretary On The Way Out Buh-bye.

Roderick Paige buh-bye

Sure Enough, Powell misses Arafat's Funeral

It looks like the US sent Assistant Secretary of State William Burns.

Heck, I hear even Burns is trying to kick the responsibility over to his no-account brother-in-law Cletus.

When the White House declared last week that Bush wasn't going, but that they would send Powell instead, it was obvious nobody had asked Powell. Why would a Presidential hopeful attend the funeral of someone who terrorizes their constituency?

Frist Moves to End the Filibuster on Judicial Nominiees

Apparently, Bill Frist is falling in line with the demands of evangelical christians, who oppose Sen. Arlen Spector's bid to head the Senate Judicial Committee -- a position which seniority owes him. Well, say the ECs, if we can't stop him from getting this privilege, we demand the Senate do away with the filibuster on judicial nominees, so that the 45 Democrats can't stop the expected juggernaut of Supreme Court Justices.

Bill Frist backs this: "One way or another, the filibuster of judicial nominees must end," Frist (R-Tenn.) said in a speech to the Federalist Society, a conservative legal group.

Problem is, once you kill the filibuster in one place, it's a skip and a jump from being killed everywhere. One method Frist is considering is to declare the filibuster unconstitutional -- which would likely have the effect of completely doing away with the filibuster. This leads quickly to the tyranny of the majority, where the actions of the Senate are determined by the 50 percent plus 1 senator.

Big changes afoot.

Paternity Dispute: Just do a DNA Test, Right? Not In This Case....

Here's some crazyness to brighten your day. A couple is separating, and the man wants parental rights for their child -- the one he was at the birth for, the one who calls him papa. She is saying, "No Dice, he may not be the father, I was sleeping with someone else during the period of conception." You think, no problem -- see which man the child's DNA matches. Case solved. Right? Except, here, the woman was apparently sleeping with the purpoted father's identical twin brother.

Oops.

Arafat, RIP

Suggested NYT headline: Arafat's Major Organs No Longer Functional.

RIP.

Gonzales out of the Running for Supreme Court Justice

Bush picked his advisor Alberto Gonzales to be the next Attorney General. First, he's been mentioned as a possible Supreme Court nominee, but if he serves (or fails to be approved by the Senate) as Attorney General, that will make it politically impossible.

Moreover, the fact that Gonzales' legal opinion was that the Geneva Conventions should be discarded in dealing with terrorists taken prisoner on Afghanistan and Iraq battlefields-- and the subsequent spectacle of Abu Grahib -- tells us what we can expect from a Gonzales Attorney General: a trashing of civil liberties.

Oh, but Bush said Gonzales will protect civil liberties? Another example of Bush saying one thing, meaning the opposite.

Been Bert?

Apparently, even though our terror alert level icon indicated that Ernie at the financial institutions in NYC, NJ and DC was dropped to Bert on Nov 3, Homeland security only just reporeted that the terror alert level is now going to be lowered.

And, even though Homeland Security considers the country to be Bert, the NYC Police Department regard the city of NY to be on Ernie.

Kristof Argues Self-Defense, when the Crime is Murder

Today, Nicholas Kristof columnizes that the judiciary is in a broad assult against American press freedoms. A judge is fining a Rhode Island reporter $1K/day, and is threatening to throw him in prison, if he does not reveal where he got a video tape of a city official accepting an evelope of cash -- allegedly, a bribe.

That sounds like protected reportage. A crime was committed and caught on tape. Evidence of it was transmitted to the press by a confidential source, the press distributed that evidence. The confidential source should be protected by anonymity against revenge by the criminal (the city official) and from prosecution, because revealing corruption is a compelling social interest. Case closed.

He then goes on to NYTimes reporter Judith Miller -- who was told by a high Administration official that Valerie Plame was a CIA operative. The confidentiality of this "source", Kristof asserts, should be equally protected as that who revealed corruption.

Hold on, here Nick: The crime in question is not that Valerie Plame is a CIA operative. Last I checked (this morning, about 8:35am EST), being a CIA operative is entirely legal. So, the conversation that Nick wants to claim "anonymous source" protection for doesn't serve a compellling social interest -- revealing and giving evidence of a crime. The crime in question is the conversation itself: between the high Administration official and Judith Miller. This doesn't make the high Administration official a source (transmitting evidence of a crime -- since, again being a CIA operative isn't a crime) -- since the "source" wasn't transmitting any evidence of a crime at all. The official was simply using Judith Miller to illegally reveal government secrets.

Ah, you say: but doesn't everyone who reveals secret information (like the Pentagon Papers, or that Plame is a spook) do so illegally? No. Like killing someone can be either murder or self-defense, revealing secret information can either further a compellling social interest (like self-protection of the republic) or work against social interest (like murdering a member of the public).

Some whistle blowers reveal information which furthers a compelling social interest -- and the law knows the difference. That the Pentagon was involved in a duplicitous fraud in selling the Vietnam war to the public --- telling lies about the status of the war -- is a crime, and revealing that crime furthers a compelling social interest. Self-defense.

There is no compelling social interest in revealing that Valerie Plame was a spy. It's purpose most likely was revenge by the high administration official on her husband. And there's no way that revelation could ever act even incidentally as serving an interest. It's just revenge. Murder.

In this case, the crime committed was the source's conversation with Judith Miller, and not that Plame is a spook. Judith is a co-conspirator in this crime if she does not reveal who the administration official is.

So this worries Judith that her revealing *any* source will make *all* sources dry up -- which is certainly against our society's interest. Judith: tell your sources, before they tell you, that they should motivited by the self defense of the Republic -- which judges will agree is a broad social interest -- and not the murder of the reputation of a defenseless individual like Valerie Plame, for their own selfish retribution.

13D beats Slate

Today's comparison/contrast:

• Bob's 13 Dickinson post
• Timothy Noah (Chatterbox) at Slate

According to the time stamps, Bob had Timothy beat by about 7 hours. Better luck next time, Tim!

In Other Deathwatches: ASHCROFT is GONE

Resigned today.


Which was a different thing than Bush said would happen, which is everyone to stay on through January to permit an orderly change.

Must be he didn't get the promotionhe wanted. Pretty damned petty. Unsurprisingly. Who goes next?

Oh, Commerce Sec'y Don Evans is gone too -- will anyone notice?

Oh: and news reports (Canada TV) are that Bush won't attend Arafat's funeral. But Powell WILL. Oh, sure, like he agreed to that. Not that he has a choice now.

Arafat Deathwatch

Actual headline sighted today on the NYT website:

Arafat's major organs still functional

I for one am glad they're keeping us up to date on these developments.

David Brooks Explains why The Democrats Lost

Surprisingly, it's because they didn't read his latest book when it came out several months ago. Uh huh.

Bush Ignores Supreme Court Ruling

After the Supreme Court -- you know, that third, supposedly equally powerful branch of government -- ruled that prisoners a Guantanamo Bay had a right to a trial in Federal Courts, the Bush administration
promptly ignored them, giving the prisoners review in front of a military court instead.

Really, the Executive Branch is ignoring what the Judicial Branch is telling them to do? Yes, in fact, they are, as they recently repeated the arguments to another Federal Judge -- below the Supreme court, obviously -- verbatim. As if the Supreme Court ruling didn't exist.
That Judge -- James Robertson, threw out the trials, and says to the admin: get your trials back into Federal courts where the Supreme Court already said they should be.

Canada's Immigration Website Hits Record High Visit on Nov 3

115,000 in a day -- 7x the usual 20,000 day.

I wonder if anyone is moving to Mexico?

Well Wadda Ya Know

An electronic voting machine in Ohio gave Bush 3893 more votes than he should have. How'd they figure it out? Apparently, Kerry got 260 votes in the same district -- oh, and only 638 people voted in the district.

Karl Rove, Evil Genius

In 2000 Bush lost the popular vote to Gore by 500,000 nation-wide. As we have read in numerous stories since, his Brain (=Rove) then became obsessed with the lackadaisical turnout among Christian evangelical voters. His working hypothesis: They were turned off by the last-minute revelation of Bush's youthful DUI arrest in Connecticut.

Maybe so, maybe not - after all, Bush's born-again experience came well after that arrest. The point, though, is that for whatever reason 4 million evangelicals failed to turn up at the polls in November 2000, depriving the Brain's body (=Bush) of his mandate. Henceforth the Brain would stop at nothing to get out that evangelical vote. Thus: Partial-birth abortion fights, the quashing of Federal funding for stem-cell research, the constitutional amendment against gay marriage, anti-gay initiatives on the ballots of swing states, Dred Scott and "culture of life" references left and right in the Presidential debates, and so forth.

Result: Bush over Kerry in 2004 by 3.5 million nation-wide. A delta-increment of 4 million on the 2000 result.

Pretty impressive, no?

Arafat not dead

Actual lede of an NPR news story heard during one of their hourly news updates today. The sort of news that all of us can aspire to making some day.

Alert level reflects terrorist optimism after tight election

Let's take a moment to notice that the Alert level has dropped from a Bert/mini Ernie alert (Ernie in NY/DC) to just a plain Bert. Terrorists must be happy that Bush won, with a mandate this time.

The South to soothe the savage terrorist.

Bush's Vice Presidential Appointment

Dick Cheney, newly elected Vice President at 69 with a bum ticker, stressful job and - have we mentioned this? - a lesbian daughter, has a better-than-not chance of going to his just rewards while Bush is in office.

So, we've all seen The Contender. Who does Bush appoint as Vice President?
Given Bush's penchant for appointing minorities and women to positions they have not previously broken the barrier into, we see that as an opportunity for him to break yet another glass ceiling.

Bob and Derek's consensus pick: Elizabeth Dole.

My Dad, still employed

My Dad was reelected last night, 60-30 in his district. That's good news, of course - apart from keeping him gainfully employed, it shows that his constituents approve of what he's been doing. Sort of like a biannual performance review and contract renewal, all in one.

Unfortunately, the Republicans lost seats in the State House, so he will be leading an even smaller caucus than he did in 2002 to '04.

Thanks Iowa!

Let the bitter recriminations begin, I say - they nominated the guy, and in the end couldn't even deliver their seven measly electoral votes. So why are we caring what they think, ever again?

Oh, plus: I think I'm owed some coffee.

Frist Hopes to end "Extreme Partisanship"

With a loss of 2 Democratic seats, and the defeat of the Democrat's leadership in the Senate, ousting Tom Daschle, Bill Frist hopes to end the extreme partisanship in the Senate of the past few years. Of course, it will be done the same way you stop a dog and a cat from fighting.

You drown the cat.

Why Kerry Cannot Win Ohio -- or, what I learned in 7th grade algebra.

It's the morning after election, and Kerry has withheld conceding, as Ohio counts absentee and provisional ballots (which, by law, they must due within 12 days, so watch for Nov 13).

Kerry is separated from Bush by 140,000 votes in Ohio. There are estimated to be N=175,000-250,000 provisional ballots, and tens of thousands of absentee military ballots. To overcome this deficit, Kerry needs to win a fraction f of

fN>140,000 + (1-f)N
(2f)N>140,000+N
f>(140,000)/(2N) + 1/2
f> 1/2 * (140,000/N + 1)

Thus, for the lowball estimate (175,000), Kerry needs f=90% of the uncounted ballots. If there are as many as 250,000, Kerry needs 78%.

It's possible Kerry pulls down that percentage -- many of the provisional ballots are in heavily Democratic areas, because of the Republican challenges, and Kerry is right to not concede this election Ohio makes its official declaration. But in a state that's 50-50, pulling out a population which is 78% Kerry would be lucky, indeed.

Election 9:22pm

No surprises so far, yet Bush is 155 v. Kerry's 112. The votes are far from counted -- but it seems pretty clear that Slate's early exit polling was not very accurate, at all. They had Kerry up in Florida by 1%, but now, with 53% of the precincts reporting, Bush is up 53 v. 46.

Kerry Still Up

Jack Shafer's second batch of exit poll results are in, and Kerry has held the lead in Wisconsin as well as (barely) Florida and Ohio. He is ahead handily in New Hampshire - almost enough to make you want to forgive them for 2000.

Kerry has a thin edge in Iowa and Nevada. If those go for Kerry with NH and WI, then he can tie W even while losing Ohio and Florida. Not that we want that to happen.

Best Election Update Website?

Seriously people -- what's got all the stuff on a single self-updating page? I'm sitting at WaPost right now. Waeve.

The Rehnquist Side-line

A little side wager, if you wish: In the case of a Kerry victory, Rehnquist resigns the Supreme Court ("health reasons") during Bush's lame-duck 2 1/2 months. Stakes: One LCB.

Kerry by a Nose

Jack Shafer's first results are in, and it's Kerry by a nose (so far) in Florida, Ohio, and (more comfortably) Pennsylvania.

Go Dems go!!

Update: Make that very comfortably in Penn, and comfortably in Wisconsin. Bob and I have worked the numbers, and with Wisconsin under his belt Kerry only needs Florida or Ohio to win the pot.

Exit Polls, Early

Jack Shafer at Slate will be putting out early exit poll results this year. So this is one way to get your answers before the polls close.

All part of his "greater transparency in the media" campaign.

Poll Closing Times for the Big Swing States

Here's a list of poll closing times for the biggest swing states which remain in play, in EST, according to the WaPost:

• FL 7:00
  
• OH 7:30
  
• PA 8:00
  
• WI 9:00
  
• NM 9:00
  
• IA 10:00
  

Results should begin to be announced 30 min after poll closing.
Keep in mind that, based on "strongly leaning" projections, if OH and FL both end up in either Bush or Kerry's column, the respective candidate will take the election. If said candidate takes all three of FL, OH, PA, then it is a landslide for them. So, this thing can be over by 8:30pm -- in time to run out and catch either "The Grudge" (if Bush wins) or "Ray" (if Kerry wins).

GOP to Intimidate Minority Voters in Ohio

After two judges in Ohio ruled against the Ohio GOP, disallowing election "monitors" who Dems (and commentators, like me) widely believed will be used to intimidate voters and create long back-logs in minority districts, in a cynical effort to dissuade voters from going to the polls and supressing the Democratic vote Ohio Federal Appeals court overturned the earlier ruling and found that, in fact, the GOP can go ahead and do this.

This is bad for the country. We know that, when the GOP can use an advantage to supress the opposition, they do. It's Florida all over again, x1000.

The California Diebold VIBS Memory-Leak Problem could change the election outcome.

California has apparently deployed electronic voting machines with memory leaks, and this could change the election outcome. As Steve writes below, my parents run the polling place in their Alameda County, CA district (Steve and I are brothers). They got that memo with their Diebold eVoting machines from the county.

The described problem is exactly what one would expect from a memory leak. A "memory leak" happens due to bad programming -- the program, while executing, over-writes memory which the programmer didn't intend for it to.

If the program only over-writes part of itself, then shutting the computer down and turning it back on -- as the memo instructs -- will solve the problem, no harm done.

However, if your program has memory leaks, it means can't find your ass with your hands as a programmer. You can't account for your memory-writes. The program, while executing, can over-write anything which is in memory -- such as votes. Shutting your computer down and restarting it won't restore the votes. In fact, you wouldn't even notice they were gone.

It could be much worse than this -- if the memory leak accidentally over-writes the votes, it could fill the memory position where the votes were with junk -- so we would get out complete gibberish, and the votes could not be reconstructed.

A problem like that threatens the validity of the California vote.

Unresolved memory Leak in California Diebold eVoting Machines--Overwriting the Vote?

The message sent to polling places in Alameda along with their Diebold eVoting machines reads:



Now, this doesn't appear to render the machine inoperable as stated in my previous post (the instructions tell the pollster to simply reset the machine), but memory leaks are the breeding ground for every major computer virus. These machines are vulnerable.

Economist endorses Kerry

I wouldn't have thought it possible for them to so change their minds, not after they made it clear that the absence of WMD in Iraq made no difference to the merits of the war, in their minds, but here it is... the Economist has endorsed Kerry.

It is a strong measure of how far Bush has fallen, post-9/11 and post-Afghanistan. To the magazine's credit, they cite Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib as primary reasons for witholding their support from the President. Nonetheless, one cannot help but feel that the butchered corpse this Administration has made of Iraq is really the critical factor here.

How Voters Can Render California's eVoting Machines Inoperable

I was having dinner with my parents last night. They run the poll in their precinct, and they just recently received the Diebold voting machines to be used in eVoting. An in-box note came with the equipment which basically said:

"When using the audio headset with a voting machine if used more than 4 times on a single machine, you will receive a message that says 'Out Of Memory' and the voting machine will shut down. Please move the headset to a different voting machine after 4 uses, otherwise the voting machine will be rendered inoperable"

This is gross incompetence at all levels. The company should not be putting out machines that can crash (most likely huge memory leaks), and the state should not be approving these.

Rove-like activities in Michigan

Remember the Push-pollling of South Carolina Bush used to defeat McCain in the primaries of 2000?

It appears that Karl Rove is up to the same tricks again.

According to AP: "In a recording of a phone call played for The Associated Press, a young woman says: 'When you vote this Tuesday remember to legalize gay marriage by supporting John Kerry. We need John Kerry in order to make gay marriage legal for our city. Gay marriage is a right we all want. It's a basic Democrat principle. It's time to move forward and be progressive. Without John Kerry, George Bush (news - web sites) will stop gay marriage. That's why we need Kerry. So Tuesday, stand up for gay marriage by supporting John Kerry.'"

We should really see a flurry of prosecutions after this election, but only if Kerry wins.

BTW, if we're not code:Ernie by tomorrow, elections will most likely take place on schedule which means I owe Robin a luxury caffinated beverage.

You and What Army?: 2

Back in June, the Supreme court ruled the Administration must permit Gitmo prisoners to have their cases reviewed by federal courts in the US. (Recall the 13D post here) These are the "unlawful enemy combatants" that the Bush Administration says has no right to judicial review, and can be held indefinitely without charge.

Then, Bush (through spokesman Scott McClellan) said they were glad teh Supreme Court "recognized the authority of the president as commander in chief" and "We also recognize that the court had some concerns, and we respect those concerns." Really, the administration effectively responded to the Supreme Court's ruling by glaring them in the eye and saying, "Says you and what army?"

Today, lawyers for the detainees are saying that the Bush Administration is refusing to comply with the Supreme Court's order. Whenever the lawers bring briefs to courts to exercise these rights, the Justice department re-argues the same arguments they lost on in the Supreme Court case. In other words, they're ignoring the Supreme Court.

When the Executive branch under the Bush administration refuses to acknowledge the ruling of the Judicial Branch, it's anti-constitutional.

I hate to be a bother -- but it's worth noting that a President who ignores the Constitution, rather than supporting and defending it as they swear to do, should be impeached.

Bush and GOP Want to Deny Minorities the Vote

NYT Story. Bob and I discussed the situation of GOP "voter challenges" in Ohio yesterday. I was stunned that this type of behavior - targeted specifically at inner cities and other minority-rich districts - was legal. I mean, this is classic Civil Rights-era stuff; what do we have a Voting Rights Act for?

Turns out a couple of Federal judges in Ohio agree with me. They have issued injunctions preventing all partisan "challengers" from entering the polling places. So far, so good.

However, the Ohio GOP is now appealing this ruling to the Sixth Circuit. Apparently, they really really want to deny minorities the vote. And Bush, by visibly failing to upbraid the Ohio GOP for this rank racist behavior, has shown his colors as well.

Honestly folks. It doesn't get any less subtle than that.

Watch Ohio and Florida Tomorrow

According to the NYTimes Electorcal College Calculator, PA is firmly in Kerry's column.

In this scenario: if either Bush *or* Kerry takes *both* Ohio and Florida (whose polls close earlier than more Western states), then the respective candidate will win.

Slate's Election Scorecard: OH, FL breaking to Kerry

Slate's election scorecard claims, in the closing hour of this campaign, FL and OH are breaking toward Kerry. PA, where Bush is campaigning today, is firmly in Kerry's column.

Most importantly, they say that regardless of what happens elsewhere, Kerry cannot win if he loses in both FL and OH.