Sure, the Federal Marriage Amendment failed on the Senate floor. But in Missouri, where a state constitutional amendment was on the ballot yesterday, how does it play?
Those opposing the amendment spent $450K in the big MO, while those for it spent a paltry $19K. And in an August election, where turnout was historically 15-25%, this election saw 41% participation. The amendment passed, with 70 perent of the vote -- and 60% had been forecast. This means the issue gets out non-traditional voters, in droves -- ones who likely support Bush.
In November, swing states of Arkansas (6 electoral college votes), Michigan (17), Ohio(20) and Oregon (7) will have similar amendments on their ballots -- a total of 50 electoral college votes, out of 270 needed to win, which can be delivered to Bush's column. According to the Cook report on the status of electoral college votes, if you move those votes to Bush's column, he's assured
224 EC votes, against 165 in Kerry's column (if you ignored the Gay Marriage factor, the race is roughly 182 vs. 165, with the rest up in the air).
If Kerry is to win, he has to figure out how to stop those people from voting Bush, or pull out in even greater numbers (more than 15% of the voting population) other non-traditional voters (the young?) who would favor him over Bush.
Article here.
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