Why Powell Will Not Be VP

I've long been speculating that Colin Powell would take Cheney's place on the Republican ticket. But now, I have an argument for why he will not.

Powell's goal is to be elected President in 2008. Bush is -- to my view -- in the process of crashing and burning in 2004. So, if Powell joined the ticket, and won, Bush would continue to use him -- just as he does now -- as a red-headed step-child, making him take the bullets while Bush gets the credit. And, Bush is going to continue to make enemies, while accruing few new friends, so that by the end of 2008, if Powell would be seen as the establishment candidate, that would hardly work in his favor. It's not worth the benefit of having held one elective office, which would improve his credibility not one whit. AND, if Bush lost -- well, Powell would have as much chance in 2008 as Lieberman did in 2004.

So why risk it? He can sit on the outside, and, even if Bush/Cheney or Bush/McCain won, he can still run credibly as the new Republican in 2008.

When there's nothing to gain, there's no reason to take the step.