Thursday, June 17, 2004

Kerry/Gephardt?

Oh, sure -- that can happen. After all, Gephardt attracts and holds that elusive swing voter group,
shirtless men, who vote Republican since Reagan took office.

Actually, Gephardt's got no chance. He'd bring them in from the left, but makes no inroad to the right. The VP can't be an exercise in securing your base -- if he is, you've lost the election. His importance only comes in after the convention, when, if you don't have your base, it's over for you. You have to be gunning for members of the other party. I think the obvious choice is Edwards -- he's like Bush in the many ways that Bush is attractive to swing voters.

Sure, you might say, but Gephardt can attract the left that might otherwise go Nader. Oh, but the strong argument against voting for Nader is simple: "Vote Nader, and Enjoy 4 More Years of Bush". C'mon people, let's focus triangulation here.

Oh, and that McCain move? That was for show. It ought to freak the Republican party out because -- even as McCain was denying the crown, he was still credibly in it. Heck, even after denying it now, he's still credibly in it. And how do you think it makes the rank and file members of the Republican party feel that the Democrats could conceivably come in and scoop up a respected One Of Their Own -- one who was the last credible opposition to Bush in 2000? It makes them feel threatened, that's how.

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