San Francisco municipal staff continue to issue marriage licenses to gay couples as fast as they can stamp those new "first applicant / second applicant" marriage certificates. City offices will be closed tomorrow and Monday. The two state lawsuits Bob refers to will have their requests for preliminary injunctions heard on Tuesday. Since SF mayor Gavin Newsom & Co. are actually violating state law (California's Proposition 22 defined marriage as the union of a man and woman) it is quite possible that they will succeed. What happens next?
On Tuesday, the judges will rule on the preliminary injunctions. As Bob pointed out to me on the phone, these suits may be thrown out on grounds that the suing parties have failed to show harm - however, personally I doubt this will carry the day. Rather, it seems likely under State law that the injunctions will be issued and stem the tide of same-sex newlyweds.
However, the subsequent fate of the lawsuits is not clear. Proposition 22 is a law, not a constitutional amendment. Thus even if (both) State judges rule against them, the gay newlyweds can appeal to the California State Supreme Court, seeking equal protection under the state constitution. This in turn would set us up for a Massachusetts-style legalization of gay marriage.
With both California and Massachusetts sanctioning same-sex marriage, opponents will suddenly be faced with a battle that they must wage on many fronts. Any couple, from any state, will be able to come to California or Massachusetts - driving distance for about 80% of the population - and get married, return home, and sue for their rights. In turn some of those suits are sure to rise all the way to the Supreme Court - not this (election) year, but soon.
It seems to me this could blow the whole thing wide open. At the very least, same-sex marriage will be a hot topic at least through May 17 (legal in Massachusetts) and beyond.
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