Numbers Don't Lie: Californians Idiots

In a post-debate poll of 1,982 Californian adults Sept 25-29, 8 percent think Schwarzenegger has the best experience for the job of Governor (behind Davis, McClintock and Bustamante); 8 percent think he is more knowledgeable than the others; and 40 percent want him as their next governor.

If Californians don't want knowledge or experience, then what is it people are voting for? Passion? Fame?

The Circle Widens

The NYTImes reports that two Newsday reporters (Timothy M. Phelps and Knut Royce) were among the six receiving the leaked information about Plame. They wrote an article in July, stating that "intelligence officials" expanded Novak's account saying Valerie Plame worked in "an undercover capcity", confirming that she was not merely an analysit, as Novak has suggested in public statements since this weekend. (That accounts for 4 of the six reporters the leak went to, according to the anonymous WHouse source for the WAPost article; the forth -- after Phelps, Royce and Novak -- ).

There are only two offices which knew about Wilson's selection for the Nigerian job: Justice (the CIA), and office of the Vice President.
Unless Tenet is in the habit of leaking and then complaining about it -- it seems likely that Cheney's office was involved in the leak.

Rove/Cheney Perp Walk?

A WAPost article says CIA director Tenet has requested an investigation from the FBI
which could bring a scandal to the White House.

Only days after Joseph Wilson penned the NYTimes OpEd stating his Nigerian investigation showed no evidence for yellowake trade with Iraq (an investigation prompted by the Vice-President's office), two senior White House officials rang up six different journalists and revealed that Wilson's wife is CIA operative, making vulnerable anyone she had ever met outside the US -- oh, and breaking federal law. Syndicated columnist Bob Novak published the statement. The revelation is interpreted as revenge, and a warning to others who would fight this administration.

The administration won't go on the record as to who those two officials are -- but speculation is that one was Karl Rove. Was the other was our Vice President Cheney? Are we going to see a perp walk starring Bush's lead political operative and the man who it has been said was the only one who stood between Bush and the Presidency?

13DSt, Ahead of the Curve

You read it here first, folks. This week The Economist finally gets up to speed.

Bob Reviews Voice over IP (VoIP): Vonage

By now, you all have my new number (510-868-1639) -- but you're possibly wondering "Hey, what's with the Bay Area area code when you live in Pasadena? Is it cellular? And aren't you moving to Montreal in 2 months? Why a new phone, in the wrong area code, just before you leave the country?"

Answer: my phone is part of the newest, hottest trend in telephony: voice-over-IP by Vonage, which uses your fast internet connection (DSL or cable modem at home, or your screaming T1 line at work). This is a telephone which uses the internet to send the voice signal. You pick a phone number ANYWHERE in the USA, and Vonage sends you a little box, about the size of my hand. You plug that box into your Ethernet, and then plug a phone into the box (any phone -- I had to go out and buy one since I only had a cell before), and voila! you have a working telephone.

Big phreaking deal, you say, I have that already with my local land line. Ah, but:

1. You can pick a local phone number anywhere in the US, so that people can call it, and it is a local call for THEM, even though you are far away.
   
2. The box is an internet device. That means, you can take it with you (say, to Canada, like I will do in 2 months), plug it in, and it's like I'm in Pasadena -- works just fine! So, you'll be able to call me in Canada -- or, Bulgaria if I should travel there -- at this number.
   
3. Charges? Vonage just reduced their rates, to $25/month for unlimited local calling and 500 min long distance in US and Canada; or $35 for unlimited long distance in the US and Canada. Their long distance rates are very low (4 c/min to Austrailia?)
   

And really cool things about it:

1. For $5/month, I can add an additional phone number to map to my phone. So, you can also call me at (202-448-8931), and I'll pick up. After I move to Canada, I'll add a 626 number as well. The easier for my friends to call me.
   
2. Yes, yes, caller-ID works.
   
3. Voice mail: check it, people call my vonage number, it rings for 15 seconds (and you have control over how many seconds), it then forwards to my cell phone (in case I'm not home) which rings for 5 seconds. Then, the phone will transfer to my Vonage voice mail. You leave a message, and then Vonage sends me an email with the number you just called from (via caller ID).
   
4. Oh, and that voicemail? I log in to my vonage account on the web, and I can hear it in streaming audio. Or, they can send it as an attached audio file in the email they sent me.
   

How's the sound quality? Outstanding.

What are the downsides? Well, for 911 calling, you have to tell vonage where you are when you plug in your phone -- they can't just figure it out (if you plug in your phone and leave it there, say at home, then the one-time registration is a snap). And, if your power goes out at home, your cable modem and vonage box will not function (generally, local phones work during power outages).

Bob gives it two thumbs up.

Issa Balks

The California Republican congressman who bankrolled the recall against Davis -- ostensibly to remove from office an incompetent -- now says that, actually, it's not about removing an incompetent at all: it's about installing a Republican Governor.

In a speech to San Francisco GOP'ers (probably held in a phone booth on Nob Hill) Darrell Issa revealed that he believed having two Republicans in the race (McClintock and Schwarzenegger) will throw it to Bustamante. Rather than that, Issa says, vote NO on Recall.

So, Issa agrees with Clinton and Davis: Issa bankrolled the recall -- not because Davis is an unacceptable Governor, not because the state of California needs to remove him as incompetent, not because the will of the people of California has somehow been thwarted -- but because Republicans lost last year's election and they want a "do-over", to install a Republican Governor.

What if the economy should tank?

Bill Safire works a scenario where the Clintons are pushing for control of the Dems, over Dean who owes them nothing, by king-making Wes Clark. In so doing, Bill asks What if, as Christmas nears, the economy should tank and President bush becomes far more vulnerable?

Um, 3M lost jobs in 2 years, 6.1% unemployment (oh, and the direct marketers claim they will lose 2M fo their 4M jobs by christmas due to the national do-not-call list, containing 48M numbers -- a credible claim), a $500B deficit with no end of deficits in sight. Did anyone notice the huge gain in productivity in the second quarter (6.8%, vs. 2.1 in the 1st?) -- that's the sound of workers being squeezed. Want to know how long THAT lasts? Not 3 quarters.

Bill, the economy IS tanking. It's not like the economy is a random walk -- you can see it coming over the hill.

Brooks' Column 4

Brooks: Why can't Puerto Ricans be more like Jews?

(And thanks for catching that hereditary bit, Jamie.)

Canada: The New U.S.

In honor of Bob's soon-to-be country of residence, top five reasons why Canada is the new U.S.:

1. Stable currency
2. Civil liberties
3. Democratically-elected leader
4. Respect of the international community
5. Independent media

Ahh, America - the nation that really puts the "Ex" in "Expatriate."

3 Strikes

Bush II is now playing with 3 strikes on Iraq:

1. Yellowcake lie
2. UN Help
3. Saddam + 9/11 lies

What with those lies, and the entry of a four-star General into the race on the Democratic side, you have to think things are looking up.

Erica: Think of a blog as like a cage-match, without the cage.
There are no limits one what you can say, but everything's open for debate. And, everyone who reads will be Quietly Judging You(tm).

What was that again? A little louder please, you're mumbling. I can barely hear you.

I think this makes it everyone except Dick Cheney. Oh, and 70% of the American people, but we can thank Rummy, Condi and George for taking the mislead on that.

Bush-Powell in '04?

Given Dick Cheney's recent health problems (babbling incoherently), it bears pointing out that a Bush-Powell ticket in 2004 might provide much-needed polish, now that appears Rummy and Condy have dropped the incoherent babble act.

New Opera

The NYT has reviewed Nicholas and Alexandra, the new opera by Deborah Drattell whose premiere Erica and I attended on Sunday night. Unfortunately, I think Bernard Holland is pretty much on the money. Personally, I found the libretto substantially duller than the music, some of which was beautiful - Drattell is a genius and I hope she finds her way to a more interesting musical and dramatic structure next time (her next opera is a collaboration with Wendy Wasserstein, so there is hope).

K Street Shuffle

Slate magazine founding editor Michael Kinsley made an interesting point today in his segment on the new NPR/Slate news program Day to Day. During last week's Democratic Contenders debate, Howard Dean said

If the minority percent in your state had anything to do with how you connect with African-American voters, then Trent Lott would be Martin Luther King.

Not a bad line - and it got him a good response at the debate, as you can hear for yourself if you listen to the story.

The problem, as Kinsley pointed out, is that last night's debut episode of the new HBO drama K Street, featuring Howard Dean as himself (in a guest appearance), had him delivering exactly that line, on a prompt from James Carville (playing himself, but as a recurring character). In other words, the line was not only scripted for him - it was scripted for him by a member of the HBO writing team for that fictional show.

Kinsley draws the conclusion that Dean is maybe not as smart as we had thought. I feel that's a bit harsh, but don't really have a better answer myself to the questions this incident raises. Namely, (1) What is Dean doing playing himself on a fictional HBO drama? This seems a recipe for trouble from the start. (2) What is Dean doing later, at the debate, when he repeats a line that (a) Is so dramatically not his own; (b) As if it is his; (c) When the line is not his even in the context of the fictional show that he copped it from? This is bizarre stuff.

Robin, I don't wonder how the Supreme Court will rule where the concern is that there are faulty voting techniques which may disenfranchise a population, and decide an election's outcome. If they didn't mind the chads in Bush v. Gore, why would it bother them here? Besides, California law holds that the chad voting machines must be replaced by Jan 2004, and so their use in this election seems legal, unless someone would be willing to declare all past CA elections using punch cards to be invalid.

Cheney a lobbyist?

Dick Cheney believes that the US will eventually find WMD and Hussein in Iraq, and therefore that extra $87B ought to be spent.

Question: how much of the $87B goes to pay Haliburton?

Perhaps none. But, wouldn't it be nice to have officials about whom such questions could not be asked?

Alert, alert! The NYT has just run a big correction on the Fall Movie Season Preview piece that I referenced a few weeks back:

Correction: September 3, 2003, Wednesday

Because of an editing error, an article in Business Day on Monday about the success of the Walt Disney Company during the summer movie season referred incorrectly to ''Freaky Friday.'' It is a comedy, not a thriller.

Robin, as a "Freaky Friday" fan you ought to appreciate that...

John Ritter is dead. I'm reminded of the immortal words of Victor Hugo who, upon learning of the death of Baudelaire, said, "Oh."

I made a trip to San Diego this weekend. As much as the subject has been talked about, I'd like to share some excerpts from one of my greatest sources of amusement from the weekend: the sample ballot for the recall election. It gives the list of candidates with names and occupations. That's all. Here are some of my favorites:

Mary "Mary Carey" Cook: Adult Film Actress
Warren Farrell: Fathers' Issues Author
Larry Flint: Publisher
Ned Roscoe: Cigarette Retailer
Kurt E. "Tachikaze" Rightmyer: Middleweight Sumo Wrestler
Bruce Margolin: Marijuana Legalization Attorney
Paul "Chip" Mailander: Golf Professional
Ivan Hall: Custom Denture Manufacturer

and a story. I was reading these in the presence of my mother and Max, a childhood friend whose mother has been a friend of my mom since Max and I were in kindergarden together. As I read out "Warren Farrell: Fathers' Issues Author", my mom said to Max, "Warren Farrell! Your mom used to date him!"

The president has requested broader police powers for search and seizure at the borders (which you can see will be easily extended into the US interior -- why fight terrorism only at the boarders?) and for wider use of the death penalty.

This is an atrocious power grab, and one which we should not permit our executive branch to take. Note that the terrorists come here to die -- the death penalty makes them martyrs and is not a deterrent. And, there are zero examples of how being able to search and seize more easily would have helped in the past, or could possibly help in the future. This is simply a request for us to "trust them", which we should decidely give to no administration, let alone the present one.

Opus is back!

In a WaPost article, we find that the TSA intends to extend its authority into general law enforcement, by performing a background check on each and every passenger who flies and coding passengers green, yellow and red. "The system 'will provide protections for the flying public,' said TSA spokesman Brian Turmail. 'Not only should we keep passengers from sitting next to a terrorist, we should keep them from sitting next to wanted ax murderers.' " Or people with unpaid parking tickets, no doubt.

This is ludicrous -- we should not have to be subjected to a background check to travel. How soon will the TSA institute a program of random beatings -- picking out passengers at random and beating them senseless -- to dissuade travel by terrorists. Oh, and axe murderers.

Bob sez: we judge all artists similarly -- by (1) technical innovation, and (2) the truths they reveal to us. Riefenstahl was like a great essayist who wrote beautifully, but whose prose contained fatal logical flaws.

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It appears that the NY Times is concerned that Schwarzenegger might have worked illegally when he first immigrated here in 1968.

It's a relevant issue, because Schwarzenegger is on the record as having voted for Prop. 187 (denying state services to illegal immigrants); being against the law signed Sept 5 by Gray Davis which will grant drivers' licenses to illegal aliens, promising to repeal it once elected; and playing up his immigration story -- arriving as a penniless Austrian farmboy -- while admonishing for immigrants "who do it the right way" (arriving legally, working hard, paying taxes). The difference between an illegal alien and a legal immigrant -- it bears pointing out -- is that an illegal alien works without a visa. Thus, if Schwarzenegger worked without a visa, he was an illegal alien (albeit one lucky enough to eventually get a green card). So, Arnold, did you do it the right way?

Gangbang update: still no direct denial from Schwarzenegger, as he bragged in the 1977 Oui article, that he participated in a gangbang at Gold's Gym in 1977. There are very good reasons to directly deny it if it never happened. Of course, if it did happen, and he denied it, and then someone came forward with the story, that would be political suicide. He has much to gain if he didn't do it, much to lose if he did. So, Arnold gets no pass on an explicit denial. I want to know if a Governor Schwarzenegger would be a gangbanger (perhaps rare among our elected politicians), or merely a megalomaniacal self-promoter (not quite so rare as a gangbanger)?

Governor Gangbang: Bob and I just hashed this out over turkey burgers, Catchup Advisory board ketchup, and New Mexican vino - a highly recommended combination, btw.

The term "gang bang" is clearly more appropriate than the term "group sex" for what Arnold claimed to have participated in, in that 1977 interview. Moreover, the activity was in poor taste at the very least, if not in fact illegal by virtue of its being (or becoming) nonconsensual on the part of the female. It is my opinion that the story is most likely a tall tale told to impress the interviewer and his presumed-heterosexual male audience (Bob agrees - Gold's Gym has been verified to have been a men-only establishment at the time). Nonetheless, since Arnold said the words with his own mouth, the burden is on him to renounce the story publicly.

Hmm - what else? The Maryland "Ruh" fundraiser is outrageous of course, but since it's being organized by state legislators I find it hard to get into a high dudgeon. My advice to our Marylandish brethren: Take photos and video and use it on the legislators next November.

Also, Bob has received his T-shirt shipment and they all look terrific except for the "Yellow (Elevated) Alert" status T-shirt. The color of that one is off, a light green instead of yellow, so we will have to talk to them about that. Don't forget that if you order you get a 30-day money-back guarantee!

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Hey Julius, welcome to 13 Dickinson! You're just in time; Bob and I were on the verge of name-calling and spitballs.

In fact, I think Bob has telegraphed his "No on recall, Yes on Bustamante" sympathies as well, at this point (am I wrong?). So a question for both of you: Do you buy Cruz's push on the "No on Recall" side of that equation? It all seems much too convenient for me. And after all, would the man really be running for office if he didn't want to win? And if his supporters are really that fond of him (because he is that much better than the other 134), why wouldn't they just throw in for his cause whole hog, and vote for the Recall too? If I were swayed by his personality, his achievements, or his campaign - which I am not, but bear with me - I can imagine "cheating" a bit at the ballot box to give my man the edge - by voting for Recall.

So in the end, I am curious how many of the "Yes on Bustamante" supporters will end up as "Yes on Recall" as well. It is, I think, the critical danger for Davis and the Democrats come October 7 - if Gray is to win, he will need every No on Recall that he can get.

Ladies and gentlemen, Elvis has left the building, and Derek has just crossed over into "Schwarzenegger apologist"!

D -- the country Arnold served in the military for was his own: Austria , not Nazi Germany, so he gets no points for going AWOL. No points! It is not a respectable thing to do. It is illegal, and it is wrong. And he went AWOL not to save orphaned children from a burning building, to care for his sick mother, or any admirable reason. It was for his own selfish reasons -- to indulge a hobby.

If your point is that California should vote for an unscrupulous egoist , then we can look forward to Larry Flynt coming in second.

Where Bob sees a failure to live up to his civic responsibilities, I cannot help but see an admirable dedication to his dreams. Don't forget that Army service was mandatory in Austria at this time - it's not like he volunteered for the duty he shirked.

When was the last time Cruz Bustamente spent a cold night sleeping on stone for his dreams?

(Robin, what do you think: Is this back and forth adequate replacement for the soggy US Open?)

The anti-Hummer Huffer definitely qualifies as a major candidate -- she will land in the top 5% (by number; that's the top 7 vote-getters for those of you keeping score at home. Ah, the luxuries offered to predictors by a field of 135 candidates). Now, an alternative definition of "major candidate" might be "better than a snow-ball's chance in hell of winning", in which case she's out of the majors.

Reuters this morning quotes Schwarzenegger from his 1977 memoir "Arnold: The Education of a Bodybuilder" where he concludes it was worthwhile to abandon his Austrian army unit -- going Absent Without Leave -- so that he could participate in his first major bodybuilding contest:

I sat in jail for seven days with only a blanket on a cold stone bench and almost no food. But I had my trophy and I didn't care if they locked me up for a whole year; it had been worth it.

Conclusion: Arnold first, civic responsibility (and complying with the law) somewhere after that. I suppose we can hope that he doesn't decide that there's something he'd rather do than govern . Of course, going AWOL as a cheif executive won't land you in the brig.

Whoa, waitaminute - was that Bob we saw, just now, referring to Arianna Huffington as a "major candidate"?

Gotta love this recall thing. Personally, I think Arnie's no-show is a mistake, he should take any chance he can get to stand side-by-side with Bustamante.

Schwarzenegger is skipping out on a debate tonight which is being attended by all the major candidates -- Bustamante, Ueberroth, McClintock, Huffington and even a Green Party candidate. Sure, he's attending a debate Sept 17, but there, the questions will be provided ahead of time, giving Schwarzenegger the opportunity to be spoon fed his answers. Which means he's afraid of an open fight.

So, do we need a governor who we already know has to practice his lines?

Sadly, sadly, sadly for Davis supporters, Gray does not have the freedom of movement to go negative on Arnie in this campaign - in fact, it seems, he does not even have the freedom to appear in his own ads. Rather, he (and his proxies) must attack the recall process only, and not any particular candidate, lest (t)he(y) be quickly dragged down into the mud with all 135.

The unions, as Bob points out, have already made the turn towards Gray/Bustamante. However, I think it's worth noting that the actual union members are (according to our inside-CA-union source) heavily leaning towards - even, if you will believe it, registering in droves for the first time simply to vote for - Arnold. Hmm.

If there's any more fortuitous sign of an impending liberal renaissance than the Bush II Administration's second admitted mistake with the Iraq War, then I don't know what it is. I do know that John Kerry finally declaring does not count, however.

Derek, nobody thinks that the usual activities that Schwartzenegger partook of during the 70s in Venice, CA will, by themselves, hurt him at the polls. His apparent admission to having group sex in a gym locker-room and the widely known fact that he openly smoked pot brings a kind of ho-hum reaction. Of course, some voters don't admire people who undertake such behavior, and it's likely to blunt their enthusiasm. And, if the number of such behaviors were to multiply -- and his statement that things he did were ludicrous, crazy and outrageous makes one think they may well multiply -- we might observe the classic smear campaign, the kind of campaign that, actually, our sitting governor has shown himself very adept at winning (much to the chagrin of politicians like Dianne Feinstiein).

Classic smear requires a multiplicity of charges, which individually do not hurt the candidate; however, when the charges become so numerous that the candidate cannot sweep the image of themselves participating in said behavior with a single sound-bite quote, this blunts enthusiasm. This typically does not much affect support in the polls, but it does affect voter turnout of the candidates' supporters. So, we would see little dip in Arnie's numbers, but the likelihood that his supporters would materialize at the polls goes down.

Arnie is extremely vulnerable to the smear attack. He clearly has material to work with. The only defense is an efficient PR machine which can cold-water each accusation as it surfaces -- unless he wants to counter by going on the attack, and I suspect it's going to be difficult for him to find as much dirt on Gray Davis or Cruz Bustamante. Of course, he does have the material of disgust with those in power -- and that has carried much enthusiasm thus far.

More likely, though, is Arnie will start taking on classic Dem constitituencies before the election -- forced there by calls for him to "state where he stands on the issues" -- like unions and lawers, which already are working against him, and this will erode the euphoric support he has now.

Final note: pointing out the political trends does not an apologist make. To be an apologist, you'd have to make statements like I do about Gray Davis: that the man, while no Svengali, is not ultimately responsible for our present budget crisis. Krugman states that the $9B energy swindle by energy producers -- a figure which does not include the futures contracts at inflated prices CA is paying out now -- was endorsed last Friday by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Republicans do good for Energy producers to fleece all in their path. Sure, Davis could have avoided this if he led a Napoleonic campaign of mass slaughter of energy producing companies, and installed extra-legal systems to defeat deregulation, but he would have been afterwards sent to Elba. We asked for this dereg, we got it, even though a simple analysis shows that the economic design of deregulation was a license for mass economic rape.

So I'm reading this change-of-seasons puff-piece at NYT about the impending fall film season (are we really prepared for 3+ hours of the QT - in two separate "volumes," no less? I'm thinking, "Not in this life.") when I came across this caption:

"Master and Commander," starring Russell Crowe and adapted from two books by Patrick O'Brian, is among many fall films based on books or with original scripts.

Hey, no kidding. What will they think of next? Reminds me of the history text that was gathering dust in Erica's UCSB office: World History: Continuity and Change.