Nader as Spoiler

I compared the list of states whose ballots Nader will appear on with the Cook Political Report's present outlook of the 2004 Electoral College.

Nader is polled at 2% of the vote nationally. Splitting of electoral college votes for states considered "solid" or "likely" for the candidates, gives 179 Kerry vs. 172 Bush. 270 votes are needed to win, so the election is about finding the 90-100 votes each candidate needs.

Swing states where Nader is definitely OFF the ballot have 15 votes: Maine(4), Missouri (11).

Nader is challenging being thrown off the ballot in states with 73 EC votes, although it seems likely that he will lose: Arizona (10), Florida (27), N. Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (21).

Swing states where Nader is on the ballot are (89 EC votes): Colorodo (9), Iowa(7), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Oregon(7), Wisconsin (10), West Virgina (5).

Nader claims to have 2,400 signatures in Minnesota (10), where 2,000 signatures are needed. Signatures are due there Sept 14.

With 89 EC votes that Nader is eligible for, and 2% under his thumb, Nader could deny victory in states where the Kerry-Bush difference is less than 2%. Unless Nader pulls out -- and he should -- he is already on the map as the spoiler.