Saturday, May 22, 2004

Economics of TCP oil

The economics of this process can be potentially staggering as well. I believe that the article states that it can produce a barrel of oil at $8-$12 (I assume that this is a break even cost). This is not to mention the natural gas and the pure carbon that is produced. Pure carbon is valuable for its use in water filters, but lets assume for a second that the income generated from these by-products is negligible, and lets also assume that the operators of the plant are too optimistic at the cost of generating a barrel, so we double the cost. It has been a long time since OPEC has been selling oil at $24 a barrel. It would be difficult for them to meet it, then sustain it indefinitely.

Let's also assume that OPEC can meet a $24 per barrel price. We can then examine the ecological benefits of each of these plants. The plants can use any organic materials as a source. This includes material from pig and cow manure, sewage, harbor dredgings, plastics (oddly enough an organic material) , tires, medical waste, and even waste from old landfills can be dug up and used in this process. Any oil used from the processing of these materials means no net increase in the amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere. Since this garbage was decaying and releasing CO2 anyway, the gasoline burned will not be making a net contribution to greenhouse gasses.

There's also the matter that these oil producing plants can be distributed where they are needed. That means that we can eliminate oil tankers, and pipelines necessary to distribute oil. We can also eliminate drilling platforms, oil rigs, and costly oil searching expeditions.

Let's also look at the problem of producing enough plants necessary to make the US 100% independent from foreign oil. In 2003, the US imported 4.1B barrels of oil. If the plants cannot be more efficient than 500 barrels per day, that would mean we would need roughly 22,500 plants to produce enough oil (I am assuming here that the US population can create enough waste to feed these plants), at $25M per plant we're looking at a total cost of $562.5B or roughly the cost of 2.4 Iraqi wars.

Yes, it does seem like they are taking lead and creating gold, which is why I'm still skeptical, but taking into account everything above, if these plants could even operate at a break even point, the political, ecological, and economical impacts are still impressively staggering.

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