How Far It May Go

Bob, to address your point (several posts back) about how far the gay marriage thing will go, and why that matters -

The reason it matters is because the more gay marriages we actually have in the U.S., the shriller the opponents of gay marriage get, and the more hysterical they sound when they panic about the consequences for our morals, institutions, and character as a country. The increasing numbers of happily (and unhappily!) married gay couples demonstrate to the straight and conservative - but inclined towards tolerance - majority that gay marriage is not such a big deal after all, and simultaneously, drive the intolerant fringe into greater and greater paroxysms and agonies. The first trend is causing the ground to shift beneath the feet of the opponents of gay marriage, and I expect opinion polls to register this shift, by the Republican convention if not before. The second trend is causing the intolerant fringe to alienate a greater and greater fraction of the tolerant middle; even those who do not change their views on gay marriage per se will be reluctant to identify themselves with the extreme positions (e.g. Constitutional Amendment) that the fringe is pushing.

As you have pointed out, Bob, the President's support for a Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage has already been backed down to the point where he is willing (according to his spokespeople) to allow for Civil Unions. The NYT had a story about evangelicals in Michigan who were against gay marriage and supportive of the President in general but had their doubts about the Amendment (in general, those who expressed this view had gay friends or relatives). Just yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist painted a vision of gay marriages spreading "like wildfire" over the country if the Senate does not act soon on an Amendment. Yet it is far from clear that an Amendment can prevail in the Senate even today, much less one or two months from now when the polls will have shifted - and with any luck, Bill Frist's nightmare will have been made real.