Colinwatch

The issue has been discussed extensively offline between Derek and myself, but so much so that I can't remember if it was Derek or I who came up with the idea (I'm guessing it's Derek).

The KillerApp for the Republicans now would be for Cheney to announce that he is not going to run for VP in 2004. Given the general failure in Iraq (Saddam is not dead or under arrest, and it appears we are about to pull out of there so that Bush doesn't have to stare down an unpopular and futile police action during an election year), Cheney can be hung with it, and, out with the old, in with the new. Cheney will be an increasing liability, as there are no more political points to be scored in Iraq (except for the capture of Saddam Hussein).

The best time to do this? Probably just before the Democratic Convention (July 26-29), thus overshadowing the excitement there, and giving them a month to build up the replacement for the August 30-Sept 2 Republican National Convention.

And who will that replacement be? It's obvious, no? Colin Powell. He wants to be President, has held on these years with great intestinal fortitude, and if he's VP in 2004, he's a shoe-in as VP [ What I meant here was President, NOT VP! -- BobR] in 2008. Imagine the Powell-Hillary matchup! He's practically a Democrat anyway, so the crossover would be huge.

Of course, he will be no conservative's favorite, but those guys can run in the primaries against him. A Bush/Powell ticket might be vulnerable to a Buchanan Progressive Party assault from the right. Even so, they would probably gain more from the left than they'd lose from the right, and it would set up the Republicans with an heir apparent with strong cross-party credentials for 2008.

Let's watch for those "Powell not Cheney" signs in the months to come.