Why Arnold Will Not Veto The Marriage Bill

Now that Steve, Robin, Patrick and Derek have taken the con side of my bet (Pro: That Gov. Arnold does not veto the California Gay Marriage Bill), maybe I should explain my logic a little.

The California legislature passed the Religous Freedom and Civil Marriage Protection Act on Tuesday Evening (Sept 6th). From that time, Arnie has 30 days in which to sign the bill into law or veto it, after which it passes into law without his signature. After 24 hours, (Sept 7th) Arnie announced that he intends to veto the bill.

For those of you who watch political theatre, this is a complete mis-ordering. As Governor, you don't announce your intention to veto a bill *after* it has passed the legislature, you do so before it has passed, to force the legislature to modify it into a 2/3s veto-proof form, which is nearly impossible to do, and likely would make it acceptable to the Governornor anyhow.

It's now Sept 10th -- a good three plus days after the bill was passed. What's he waiting for? Can't find a pen? Busy with leg curls?

Arnie took 24 hours, not to decide to veto the bill, but to decide *to announce* that he would veto the bill. With 30 days in front of him, this is a political opening, not closing, of the debate: if he wants to sign the bill, he wants to get a bounce from the proponents, and so he needs a conversion story. Announcing that he will veto the bill begins that conversion.

And why would Arnold want to sign the bill? Well, apart from issues of basic fairness, let's say that, somewhere, there's a parallel universe, identical to this one, except that in that Universe, Mr. Universe had sex with other body builders. In that parallel universe, Mr. Universe would be governor, fully knowledgeable of the fact that the gay community has a habit of leaving closeted politicians alone if they generally support gay rights, and outing those who work against them. In that Universe, if Mr. Universe vetoed a gay marriage bill, I think you would see a few gay bodybuilders outing the Governor, which would devestate his support among his base.

Thus, I ask myself: what's the probability that that universe is this universe? Given the Governors aggressive personality, his known penchant for sexual aggression (so far only seen with women), and the obvious joy he takes in domination and humiliation of other men (documented on the body bulding circuit -- for example, by mocking a body builder he used to compete with about his having had sex with his wife), I give it a good 30-50%.

And, if I'm right about that, Arnold will simply announce: "I have always believed that this is a matter to be decided in the courts. Leaving this sort of legal confusion around can only lead to civil strife, which the California economy cannot afford. Therefore, in order to put this matter in front of the courts as quickly as possible and bring the debate to a decisive end, and not cause any more damage to the California economy, I have decided to pass this bill. Vote Arnold for Senator, 2008".

Note, however -- even if I am wrong about why Arnold wants to pass the bill, his waiting 4 days and not simply signing his veto casts suspicions on his intentions. And, motiviations aside, still gives me a read of him that he intends to attempt a conversion story.