Friday, April 30, 2004

CA reverses course on E-Voting

California Secretary of State Kevin Shelley announced his E-Voting decision today. In bullet-point summary fashion:
  1. Certification of Diebold machines is revoked. These were the machines used in San Diego, Solano, San Joaquin and Kern counties in March that exhibited numerous irregularities;
  2. Shelley has referred Diebold's illegal last-minute modifications of its machines to the Attorney General for civil and criminal action;
  3. Non-Diebold E-Voting machines will be required to provide paper receipts of the vote for the November elections;
  4. Voters in San Diego, Solano, San Joaquin and Kern will be using paper ballots in November.
According to Shelley's statement, he came close to barring E-Voting in the state entirely for November.

My preferred approach is still: Use an E-Voting machine that gives you a paper ballot which you place in a ballot box. That paper ballot is what is counted. I believe that once you reach the point of acknowledging the vulnerability of E-Votes to tampering (after all, they are only electrons) and retaining the paper ballots as backup, it is an easy step to say - since you don't trust it - why are you bothering with the E-Talley to begin with?

"Repositioning"

Our troops retreated from Fallujah, gave command of the city to a former general of Saddamm's Republican Guard, and the Iraqi flag of Hussein (not the new one) is now flying and being waved in the streets of Fallujah accoring to the NYTimes.

Thursday, April 29, 2004

Sept. 11 Could Not Have Been Prevented Without Accruing A Lot Of Overtime

As Condi says (?): Sept. 11 Could Not Have Been Prevented Without Accruing A Lot Of Overtime: " It's very hard to pay people time-and-a-half when they can't tell you the exact location, date, and method of an imminent terrorist attack. 999 times out of 1,000, the operatives come up with nothing."

Wednesday, April 28, 2004

MIT Tech vs. Jack Valenti

An editor from the MIT student newspaper, The Tech, sat down for a 10-minute conversation with Jack Valenti. Here's the result.

Tuesday, April 27, 2004

Free Cone Day

Today (April 27) is Free Cone Day at Ben and Jerry's stores across the country - even in Canada.

Get yourself to one between Noon and 8pm. Free ice cream - how can you beat that?

Pro-choice = terrorist

I saw this interview last night (admittedly on the Daily Show) where Karen Hughes equates abortion with terrorism. Particularly interesting is the part:

"BLITZER: There is a clear difference when it comes to abortion rights between the president and his Democratic challenger, John Kerry. In your opinion, Karen, how big of an issue will this abortion rights issue be in this campaign?

HUGHES: Well, Wolf, it's always an issue. And I frankly think it's changing somewhat. I think after September 11th the American people are valuing life more and realizing that we need policies to value the dignity and worth of every life.

And President Bush has worked to say, let's be reasonable, let's work to value life, let's try to reduce the number of abortions, let's increase adoptions.

And I think those are the kind of policies that the American people can support, particularly at a time when we're facing an enemy, and really the fundamental difference between us and the terror network we fight is that we value every life. It's the founding conviction of our country, that we're endowed by our creator with certain unalienable rights, the right to life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Unfortunately our enemies in the terror network, as we're seeing repeatedly in the headlines these days, don't value any life, not even the innocent and not even their own."

This conversation speaks for itself. "We" value every life, whereas the terrorists don't even value the life of the innocent. This is the difference between "Us" and "Them".

I'm thinking that the more airtime given to the Bush Administration to speak its "mind", the less airtime Kerry has to purchase. Then we'll find out exactly what Bush is thinking:

"Gay marriage is terrorism"
"Cheap Canadian medication is terrorism"
"John Kerry is the devil"
"Canada is a rogue terrorist state"

Hey, it could happen.

Monday, April 26, 2004

Poutine in NYTimes

As you know, I've been eating Poutine at all the available establishments since I've gotten here.

Today, the NYTimes has an article today about Poutine in Montreal. They focus on the up-market version served at one restaurant. Which is fine.

Hmm... I could probably whip out a travel column on Poutine in a day.

Saturday, April 24, 2004

The GMail Agreement

As a frequent blogger on Blogspot (owned by Google), I got asked if I want to test gmail. So, I'm signing up. All y'all will be getting this, too, I'm sure. Here's the agreement they want me to agree to.



Gmail Agreement

In order to use Gmail you must read, understand and agree to Gmail Agreement. This agreement contains important terms and conditions that may affect your legal rights and responsibilities. Please read the current version of this agreement included below



Gmail Terms of Use

Welcome to Gmail! Before your register for your Gmail account, you must read and agree to these Gmail Terms of Use and the following terms and conditions and policies, including any future amendments (collectively, the "Agreement"):

Google Terms of Service - Our general terms and conditions
Gmail Privacy Policy - How we maintain and protect your personal information in Gmail
Gmail Program Policies - Guidelines for using Gmail
Gmail FAQs - Details about Gmail

Although we may attempt to notify you via your Gmail address when major changes are made, you should visit this page periodically to review the terms. Google may, in its sole discretion, modify or revise these terms and conditions and policies at any time, and you agree to be bound by such modifications or revisions. If you do not accept and abide by this Agreement, you may not use the Gmail service. In the event of an inconsistency between the Gmail Terms of Use and either Google's general Terms of Service (available at http://www.google.com/terms_of_service.html) or the Gmail Privacy Policy (available at http://www.google.com/gmail/help/privacy.html), the Gmail Terms of Use shall control. Nothing in this Agreement shall be deemed to confer any third party rights or benefits.

1. Description of Service. Gmail is a free, search-based email application from Google (the "Service"). You understand and agree that the Service may include content-targeted ads or other related information, as further described below and in the Gmail Privacy Policy. In addition, you understand and agree that the Service is provided on an AS IS and AS AVAILABLE basis. Google disclaims all responsibility and liability for the availability, timeliness, security or reliability of the Service. Google also reserves the right to modify, suspend or discontinue the Service with or without notice at any time and without any liability to you.


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Friday, April 23, 2004

"Axis of Evil" vs. "With Us or Against Us"

What does a black-and-white thinker do when a certified member of the Axis of Evil declares war on terrorism?
On the one hand, they are with us in the "war on terrorism." And I said that you were either with us or against us. So they can't be against us.

On the other hand, they're members of the axis of evil. And evildoers. Not to mention the sole admitted rationale for ballistic missile defense. So I need them to be against us.
This is going to be an interesting one to watch.

Josh Marshall in the NYT

Our favorite DC-based blogger, Josh Marshall, has an insightful Op-Ed in the NYT today. Way to go, Josh.

It's a pity he doesn't have a book to plug in his authorial slug-line - that's a few hundred potential sales lost right there. Plus - he's such a great guy - it's a pity he doesn't have any children yet. I mean, for the health of the species.

Thursday, April 22, 2004

Final Homecomings

Two huge developments on the flag-draped coffin front: First, the original contractor / photographer, Tami Silicio, and her husband David Landry, an employee at the same firm, were fired by their employer Maytag Aircraft. Predictable, yes - but still a big deal.

Second, 361 images of flag-draped coffins arriving at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware have been released via a Freedom of Information Act request by The Memory Hole. These pictures are going to be everywhere tomorrow - they have already been featured on all of tonight's newscasts except (wait for it) that of Fox News. (NYT Story)

Can't believe I share a name with that network (though I know my Dad is pleased).

Wednesday, April 21, 2004

Saudi blast

Regarding Bob's post about something being up in Saudi Arabia, perhaps there had been an indication of something like the explosion that just happened at the Saudi police headquarters.

Gay Marriage and Guantánamo Bay

Reading about the Supreme Court hearings on the extrajudicial detentions of our country's non-prisoners of war at Guantánamo Bay's "Camp X-ray" (Motto: Giving High-Energy Photons a Bad Name) has got me thinking about the parallels between this case and the fight for gay marriage.

And not just because with this Administration in power it sometimes seems like we are on the verge of deporting vocal supporters of gay rights (and anyone else who annoys The Vulcans) to that little patch of Rumsfeld-land. Rather, because both cases manifest the irresistable historical force that moral philosopher Peter Singer has called the "expanding circle of concern." This idea (really more of an observation) states that the proportion of the human race that we consider to be our moral equals grows more or less continuously with time. Singer has even extended this idea to the realm of animal rights. I do not wish to tread that ground today, but I will say that I agree with his principle that the selective defense of human rights - as applying to some of our co-homo sapiens, but not to others - is in the long run indefensible.

Of course, Singer is not the only person who thinks this. Robert Wright has explored the political roots of the expanding circle and feels he can justify it on grounds of enlightened self-interest alone. And various prophets, philosophers, and religious types have held forth on the principle since time immemorial. However, very few have been willing to see it through to the bitter end. Jefferson, after all, was a slave-owner who did not even free his slave-mistress until after his death; Jesus promised to return and judge humans like sheep; Muhammed gave divine sanction to Jihad.

And now, in the young 21st-century United States, we find a large fraction of the population arguing that gays must not be allowed to marry - not even if the sovereign population of their states wants to let them - and we find our most supreme courts obsessed with splitting the ever-finer hair that separates citizens (entitled to every sanctuary of our courts and Constitution) from non-citizens (not so). In the wake of 9-11 our Justice Department identified several hundred Arab non-citizens as "material witnesses" to the crime and on that basis detained them without hearings, lawyers, or habeas corpus. Justice refused to name the detainees, or even to give their numbers; many were held in isolation for months, and there is evidence that some were brutalized. In Afghanistan, our military took 600 or so prisoners of war and declared them "enemy combatants." To be sure, they probably were that - yet according to our military, the mere application of this label somehow placed them outside the purview of both US and International Law, in an extrajudicial limbo that can only be called Rumsfeld Land (the Donald having since freed a handful of these).

The arbitrary distinctions that separate the protected - straight, citizen - from the unprotected - gay, alien - in these two scenarios are in the long run equally untenable. Already, the strains of cognitive dissonance are making the splitting of the citizenship hair difficult for anyone with a touch of moral self-awareness (thank you, Sandra Day O'Connor).

For those of us on the right side of history, then - in favor of a full expansion of the circle, to everyone, everywhere - this realization argues for confidence in our ultimate victory and the consequent vindication of our arguments. While there is no reason for complacency - human rights are after all being violated, minute by minute, day by day - the long-term perspective encourages us to ride out the inevitable short-term setbacks. Certainly, the cause of the ever-expanding circle is not limited to - and cannot be defined by - one docket before the Supreme Court, or one step forward in the cause of gay rights - even if it is an especially potent and significant one. We must stay on for the larger cause. We are in for the long haul.

Friday, April 16, 2004

Non-Essential US Personnel Ordered Out of Saudi Arabia by State Department

[Mercury News]: "At times of increasing terrorist threats in foreign countries, non-essential official personnel often have the option of departing at government expense or not leaving if they so choose. Thursday's action was mandatory."

Something's up.

Thursday, April 15, 2004

Tax Code #2

One of the annoying aspects of the current income tax system in the US is that we actually have two tax codes, not one. Because its provisions are not indexed to inflation, the "Alternative Minimum Tax" (AMT) passed by Congress in the 1970's to keep millionaires from claiming absurd levels of tax deductions has now become the de facto tax code for the upper middle-class.

As you (dear readers) will discover if you do your taxes yourself this year, even when the AMT does not apply to you it remains necessary to execute a convoluted series of calculations, in the margins of your 1040 booklet, to prove that it does not. Even for those who end up in possession of their carefully-hoarded set of deductions, then, it represents a burden of paperwork and record-keeping. For the growing number of taxpayers in the other camp - hit with the AMT - it means losing all benefit of their deductions. These include such long-lauded incentives as home-mortgage interest (encouraging home ownership), property and other state and local taxes (funding public schools, police, fire, and public hospitals), charitable contributions, and college and retirement savings (encouraging fiscal discipline and savings).

The economic and public policy implications are drastic. To the extent that these tax deductions encourage public-minded behavior, those incentives will evaporate as the AMT comes into play. Even those of us not hit by the AMT right now can look ahead a few years (and I have done these calculations) and, seeing the writing on the wall, appreciate that for them the promise of the bread-and-butter tax deductions will soon be quite empty. And this will affect our spending, saving, donating, and investment decisions in the here and now.

The need to reform the AMT - or accept its future status as our primary income tax code and pursue the above public objectives in some alternate fashion - is thus a pressing one. However, despite some half-hearted gestures in this direction from the Congress, no senior official in the current Administration has so much as uttered the words "alternative minimum tax."

Slate magazine's Daniel Gross has one intriguing theory why this might be the case.

Wednesday, April 14, 2004

The Apology Mr. Bush Will Not Give

A lot of energy has gone into trying to get Bush to apologize for the September 11 attacks on his watch. Richard Clarke came forward during his congressional testimony to state blankly: We failed you, I failed you. Many feel that Bush should also come forward to make a similar statement, or fault him for not making that statement first. I think these efforts are misspent.

We have the virtue of a free and open society. This virtue gives people the power to be themselves -- not derived only from our constitutional rights, but from American culture as well. It's not wrong for us to pick up and move 5000 miles to a new job, a new family, or just to see what it's like to live in a different city, bum around, write bad short-stories while working as a dishwasher. This lets us do great things, which people in other countries have not historically been able to do, or -- most importantly -- it lets us do what we want, to be happy. We have never crawled into each other's motives. We've also been a nation of immigrants -- people who come here because they aren't wanted somewhere else, somebody elsewhere doesn't like them, and they come to be who they are, and we don't impugn them for doing so.

What Bush probably would like to say, so ineloquently, is that it's not his fault that someone took enormous advantage of our open society and culture to our detriment. The blame for September 11 does not lie with those who shape our society and culture -- including its legal strictures and governmental operations. It lies squarely with those who use our virtues against us.

There is, of course, the issue of indolent negligence, or even simple negligence. Was the mass-murder of Sept 11 obvious -- as obvious as a man holding a gun to your face -- or was it just below the surface -- the man outside the door, knocking at midnight? A case can be made for criminal negligence -- our government should have known an act on this scale would eventually take place if nothing was done. Al Qaida was blowing things up, killing tens or scores of people in other countries (Cole Bombing, Embassy Bombings) and doing so without the intention of blackmail or hostages -- such as the Bush Administration claims they considered was the main threat in the US (taking hostages on a plane to secure someone's release). It was clear that Al Qaida had designed similar activities in the US (the Jan 1 2000 strikes in Los Angeles, for example) which were designed only to kill people, destroy symbolic property, and disrupt commerce.

Anyone inside the executive branch -- including the National Security Advisor, the heads of the CIA, the FBI, the Defense Department, and State, as well as the President -- should have simply looked at what at happened in the past and concluded that we were going to be hit, big, soon. Al Qaida can make bombs, had people willing to be martyred, was operating in the US, and was looking for a big hit. And then, they should have done *something* about it -- not nothing, which is what the Bush administration did do, under the excuse "we were not on a war footing", which translates directly to "You liberties-loving folks wouldn't let us do what was necessary even if we wanted to". In other words, it was just too hard to contemplate taking effective action. Indolence. Negligence.


So, for the particular instance of 9/11, the blame lies squarely with those who used our virtues against us. But, for the general failure to read what was obviously on the page and to take effective action to protect the country -- that blame does lie squarely with the administration. Whether or not it is unfair to expect our leaders to do the hard work necessary to protect the country, which this administration failed to do, is something to be decided in November.



Safire Mentions

Bill Safire reviews those mentioned for cabinet posts in a Kerry administration.

A fun read, but don't take too seriously: Safire writes columns to express Safire's agenda -- as you might expect from Deep Throat -- and you can see a couple of poison snakes (Clinton, Howard Dean).

Tuesday, April 13, 2004

Gravity Probe B

You should pay attention to press information about Gravity Probe B, which is launching this week. It is one of the most dramatic space experiments ever. This was an idea which began in 1959, and which has gone over budget so many times that it was cancelled -- fully killed -- and then revived no less than seven times.

But, once it is done, it will have demonstrated one of the fundamental predictions of general relativity -- frame dragging.

Monday, April 12, 2004

Dogville 2

And after reading the next post and my comments on Dogville below, go see DOGVILLE. It will be like seeing THE CRUCIBLE in 1952.

If You Did Not Notice it, It Happened This Week.

For a very long time, we have been aware of the fact that, if Bush's stories of WMD did not check out in Iraq, he would lose all credibility. His credibility was then shot through the chest with the dramaticly convincing and unassailable testimony of David Kay. Bush's credibility was spent.

In politics, you do not get hung for lying, you get hung for lying when nobody believes you. That finally happened this week. Condi's testimony and the controversy surrounding the August 6 memo has brought spin to the public airwaves in a manner insulting to their friends, who could only respond "they must think we are complete idiots." The Administration's denials have finally reached the point of incredulity that Clinton's denials about sex with that woman; except these lies were not about a blow job, they were about protecting the country from imminent attack, and were used to justify a wholly avoidable war.

Bush's willing deceptions are eloquently summarized by his Crawford comments this weekend, that is now released Aug 6 2001 memo, entitled "Bin Ladin Determined to Strike in US" -- as the President put it -- "said nothing about an attack on America."

The issue is re-iterated and expanded upon in this Slate article, in which the author describes how Slate was used for pre-war WMD propaganda by someone put forward by Ahmed Chalabi, an anonymous "defector" claiming direct knowledge of WMD -- one who also took in Vanity Fair and the NYTimes, who had already been discredited by the US govt, unbeknownst to anyone not in the CIA.

The administration's credibility has evolved through 3 Rumsfeldian stages: (1) supporters could claim they did not know that Bush lied; (2) they admit they know Bush lied; and now (3), they must admit they know they know Bush lied. This is Bush's Blue Dress week.

Bush's support is eroded from plausible deniability to enforced deceptions at the muzzle of his political guns. His supporters will weary under his assault. In politics, it's great to be right, forgivable to be duped, and a capital crime to be willingly duped.

Oh, and if you think this will make things better for the election, think instead about what happened the last time you cornered a wounded and embarrassed dog. Friends, it's culture war time.

Sunday, April 11, 2004

Dogville

We have about 3 chances in life, maybe, to see a drama as important and great as Lars Von Treirs' DOGVILLE.

DOGVILLE is not sublime nor subtle. It is not completely new --- in fact, most of it is familiar. It borrows several archtypes of American drama, it is entirely constructed of them. It is a house constructed against itself.

DOGVILLE manages to be both surprising and obvious. It is clearly meant for us, and our times, and it hits its target. This will be a movie that people will watch 30 years from now, and say "Ah, yes, it must have been something to see back then." If it does not gain wide appreciation, it will be because in borrowing so much which is familiar, it will be thought to be not inventive enough to be great. But, sometimes a drama can be great because it says the things which needed to be said, when they needed to be said.

Do not miss it.

Saturday, April 10, 2004

Peer 2 Peer News Services


Ross Anderson
, a Cambridge University professor claims that by 2010, news will be distributed via peer 2 peer networks. This will overcome censorship.

Silliness. First, if you've been getting your news from the internet for the past 5 years, you'll know that what makes news valuable is not a monopoly of distribution, such as exists for music. A news article which appears from AP can show up on the NYTimes website in 5 minutes, WaPost 2 minutes after that, WSJ, and your hometown newspaper within 10 minutes, and agglommerated via Google.

"What about important news stories that are ignored by the media?" you might ask. Here are my politics: there are none. Media organizations need content to attract eyeballs to pay for advertising -- they will distribute anything which comes their way. Don't believe me? Have you read an "alternative newspaper" lately, like LA Weekly in Los Angeles, or The Phoenix in Boston. How frequently do you come across an article in these alternative outlets, who claim to cover news ignored by the media, which you find interesting or useful? They function largely as local newspapers for fringe issues --- somebody who claims mistreatment by the police department --- than a distributer of news of interest to >1000 people.

What about news for people in countries where the government censors information? People under a dictatorship want to read and report news -- like the fact that a local official is corrupt, and no one is doing anything about it. Where there is a monopoly on distribution does exist, P2P can overcome that. However, when the monopoly exists for purposes of political control, then the important technology is not distribution, it's anonymity in distribution. People don't just need access to news, or the ability to spread it themselves, they need it in such a way that will not result in the police bursting through their door and pulling them into the street. That's not something which exists -- the cornerstone of p2p is that you eventually find out what IP addresses the information you want can be gotten from, and those IP addresses can be traced.

What about storing news articles in places where there is no monopoly on information, so that it can be downloaded by people in places where there is? That's not P2P technology, that's "Radio Free Europe" -- it doesn't break censorship, it makes use of places without censorship to the benefit of the censored. It's not a new technology, it's old technology in the new medium of the internet. What's more, if you're at home on your T3 line, and you send out a request for news articles through the internet to a recognized IP for underground news distribution, the oppressive government will packet-sniff that, find out the requesting IP, and send the dogs so fast it'll make your head swim.

P2P is not the technology which will overcome censorship. Censorship can be enforced, as long as the participating parties can be identified personally. Technologies which provide anonymity for the reader as well as the poster would.

Friday, April 09, 2004

American Airlines sells its customers

WSJ reports on its homepage: "American Airlines admitted supplying information on 1.2 million passengers to outside vendors, in a disclosure likely to rekindle privacy-concern fires."

Not bad news!

In order to create a working democracy in Iraq, they need to be united somehow. We're just giving them a common enemy to fight.

"The plan is working perfectly! Exxxxxcelent" --George W. Bush

"Ernie! Ernie! Ernie!" --Elmo




Thursday, April 08, 2004

The Sunnis are Joining the Shiite Militia.

This is bad news. They are uniting against the American Army. : "'We have orders from our leader to fight as one,' said Nimaa Fakir, a 27-year-old teacher and foot soldier in the Mahdi Army, a Shiite militia. 'We want to increase the fighting, increase the killing and drive the Americans out. To do this, we must combine forces.'"

Go Ernie!

Still Bert. Why?

I'm not rooting for Ernie, mind you, but you'd think with major attacks going down in Iraq, somebody's chatter would up, and we'd be Ernie. And Easter's coming, too -- major Christian Holiday.

Definitely, Ernie time.

Robin As The Robin

Robin's conceding the bet on SHAOLIN SOCCER -- and none too soon. Last week (6 theathers) it grossed $40,000 -- not exactly sold out crouds. GOODBYE LENIN! did better with $300K in 6 theaters. I saw this one -- an ambiguous ending, which is fine, but macabre.

But that's not my purpose here, which is to raise the point that ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND has $22M after 3 weeks, in modest (1100 theaters) release. What's going on here? This is a much better movie than that, on a subject which makes it a terrible date movie (break-ups and forgetting the person you broke up with) but which nonetheless is universal. I'm sure lots of couples are avoiding it, just so that they don't have to hear the other half ask, "If we broke up, you wouldn't erase me from your mind, would you?" How do you answer that one? "Oh, most definitely -- I'd be devestated, and if I wanted to go on living, I'd need to forget you as soon as possible" is probably safest. Then again, "Oh, no, I would never want to forget you, even if it were painful" would be almost as good. Of course, this is a trick question, and the best answer is "WE'RE NOT BREAKING UP" and to leave it there.

Sunday, April 04, 2004

Don't Like Right-Wing Web Ads? Then Click On Them.

Most likely, they are targeting left-wing blogs -- because I don't think we can be mistaken for any other kind, so I don't think there's any way to avoid them. Google charges those running the ads only for click-throughs. So, if you don't like 'em, click through -- you'll cost them each time you do. And who is that hurting? We and our readers are not likely to be converted. And each time you click, they pay the fee....

Saturday, April 03, 2004

Questions, Questions

The NYTimes OpEd has 15 questions (each) from two otherwise unassociated but still interesting people which should be asked Condi Rice on Thursday.

Powell Joins the Nation of Flipfloppers with a Credibility Problem

WaPost reports that Powell has joined the nation of Flipfloppers with a Credibility Problem.


We Are a Great Nation of Flip Floppers with a Credibilty Problem

William Saletan points out in an article on Slate that all of Bush's critics have something in common:

1) They first tried to work with Bush -- on a wide range of issues (Clarke on terrorism; Kerry on No Child Left Behind and War in Iraq; O'Neil on economicpolicy)
2) Bush cons them, changing course after they start working (no committment on terrorism; Bush unfunds No Child Left Behind, and lied about WMD; tax cuts not repealed when the surplus turns to deficit, and more tax cuts asked for).
3) All change their mind -- and turn to oppose the administration.

And here's the important point:

4) The administration declares the critic "has a credibility problem" and is "a flipflopper" -- for changing their mind after the President conned them.


To be declared a flip-flopper by Bush means you were dumb enough to have trusted Bush, you worked with him for a time, and changed your mind after you figured out he lied to you.

Rove and Soccer

That TalkingPointsMemo is great -- based on what's been published in the papers, Rove talked up Plame's covert status to political consultants and other journalists prior to acknowledgement by the US government, and that looks like 10 years in prison --- even if there's no proof he leaked it to Novak. The statute looks written exactly for that case -- specifically to keep high officials from confirming journalistic leaks (or speculation), which is what Rove did.

Re Shaolin Soccer, Derek: I remember a $100M bet on Beckham, I do remember at least thinking Shaolin Soccer should do that well, but I don't think we made that bet. And if you think you can beat me twice with the same stick (Beckham didn't come near $100M), you'd be wrong about that -- at least in this case.

Friday, April 02, 2004

Shaolin Soccer and $100 Million

Hey Bob,

Do you recall expressing a verbal opinion to me last year that Shaolin Soccer would top $100m in domestic box office? I believe it was after we saw the preview, in advance of Bend It Like Beckham. Or something like that.

Now that it's being released (roughly a year behind schedule) I thought I would give you a chance to put some premium coffee behind that bet, if you are still so inclined.

Rove Confesses to Felony

I'm sure that's not the way he sees it. But check out Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo for the full details. The unsigned legal brief that "fell into his lap" the other day makes a pretty damning case.

Any armchair lawyers out there want to comment?

Wait For it: Bush Tax Cuts Creates Jobs

WSJ.com is reporting that payrolls grew by 308,000 in March, far faster than the 120,000 expected by economists. So we'll hear Bush say his tax cuts are reponsible. Even so, unemployment was up -- by 0.1% to 5.7%. I have no idea how unemployment increases while payrolls climb by the fastest rate since Bush took office. Can someone do that math for me?

Israel will be to Islamic Fundamentalist's war against the US as Iraq was to US's war against Islamic Fundamentalists

Discuss.

Administration Vulnerable to "Do-Nothing" Charge on high gas prices.

According to this Reuters article, the Bush administration has refused to talk about what its diplomatic activities were toward OPEC and Saudi Arabia for the past three years. Result: this month, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, closed their spigots, planning a 4% drop in production, which will send gas prices even higher.

Bush campaigned saying he would get "on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say 'we expect you to open your spigots' ". The result of his "quiet diplomacy" is a closing of the spigots, and gouging at the pump. Assuming Bush didn't encourage an OPEC rise in prices, his dipolmacy has been ineffective.

However, perhaps Bush did encourage an OPEC rise in prices. It's possible the administration permitted Saudi Arabia to call for a 4% cut in production, in return for Saudi Arabia remaining quiet during in the war on Terror, and in Iraq. Is Bush buying middle-east support for his war in Iraq with our gas money? If not, then in what way can he call the OPEC increase in gas prices a diplomatic success?

Thursday, April 01, 2004

How Bill Frist got Condoleezza Rice to Testify

Following up on Bill Frist's call on the Senate floor for making public Richard Clarke's 2-year old, secret testimony to Congress, alleging it is at odds with his current statements: Democrats who have seen the secret testimony (as well as Clarke) say it is consistent with his current statments. But the body responsible for changing the Secret status of information is not Congress, but the White House. Frist didn't check with the administration if they would grant such a request.

So Frist had put them on the spot: either deny making the testimony public and make it look like a cover-up, or take the extraordinary measure of using their power to make secret information public in order to attack an administration critic.

More seriously, doing the latter in response to a Congressional request would be unprecedented -- that is, it would set precedent, so that in the future when Congress wants something secret made public, the White House would have to comply.

Frist's call to make Clarke's testimony received a big boost from Clarke himself, who on Tim Russert's Sunday morning show, said Yes, Absolutely, let's make that testimony public. Spotlight to Whitehouse: which remained silent on the issue.

In response to Frist and Clarke, the administration had to make a move which would appear to be full disclosure of the facts surrounding Clarke's accusations, but which would support their arguments, undermine Clarke's credibility, and not erode Executive power.

Viola, Dr. Rice testifies publicly under oath in front of Congress.


Cheney Was In Charge of Administration Anti-Terror/WMD Effort prior to 9/11, according to Rice Speech

The WaPost got ahold of the speech Condoleezza Rice was supposed to give on 9/11 2001, at Johns Hopkins, annunciating administration security policy. It was never given. The excerpted speech includes the text below, the last bit of which states that Dick Cheney headed the administration's pre-9/11 effort, between May 2001 and Sept 2001, against terrorism and WMD prior to 9/11.

What's interesting about this is -- I've never heard of it. If Cheney did head such an effort, where are his commission's meeting agendas, minutes, reports? What did Cheney learn about terrorism and WMD prior to 9/11? Did he talk to Clarke -- which seems like an obvious thing to do -- about terrorism and WMD between May and Sept 2001?

What's important about this speech is that it shows us what the administration would have claimed as their anti-terrorism efforts if they were not being called to account for their failure to foresee 9/11, or the war in Iraq. If Cheney was in charge of the anti-terror/WMD effort from May-Sept 2001, -- then the fact that this has never been mentioned by the administration before tells us that he didn't do anything, and they've been covering up this fact.

Rice's quote:


"And yes these new threats also require us to pay attention to other means of delivery besides missiles. We need to worry about the suitcase bomb, the car bomb and the vial of sarin released in the subway. That is why last year the federal government spent about $11 billion on counter-terrorism efforts, about twice as much as we did on missile defense. That is why we're working closely with friends, allies, and the broader international community on counterterrorism initiatives.


'And that is why in May the president appointed Vice President Cheney to oversee a coordinated national effort to better protect the U.S. homeland against a terror attack using WMD."

Dogs that Didn't Bark

Fred Kaplan digs into the 9/11 hearings and surrounding news stories to figure out who in the administration actually backs Richard Clarke.

Clarke stressed the Al-Qaida threat, and CIA director George Tenent and Colin Powell were his allies. Kaplan notes that under questioning from the 9/11 comission and media, both Tenent and Powell have declined to pile-on to Clarke, while the rest of the administration has. Also, Clarke wrote in his book that Tenent would often appear in his office, be waiting at this desk or his assistant's desk, frustrated after his daily breifing with Bush that the President was not getting the Al-Qaida threat.

In the "Iraq is the major threat, not Al-Qaida" camp (prior to 9/11) is Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney. Bush was sold by this group. The same group pushed Iraq as a major force behind terrorism after 9/11, and Bush was sold by this group.

And that leaves Condoleeza Rice, who just twists in the wind. There is no evidence, anywhere, that she made any affirmative statments in any direction at any time -- instead, offering interpretations of her thoughts and actions at very much later dates. I'm continually surprised that anyone ascribes any power to Rice -- she clearly does not direct policy, she follows the leading pushes of more senior members of the administration. Take the WAPost article this morning reporting that Rice was to provide a major security policy speech pushing missle defense, on 9/11 2001 -- a policy which now has been left fallow. This was to answer the "security threats of today and tommorrow" not those of yesterday. Islamic terrorism fits no where into the speech.

There you have it: Clarke, Tenent, Powell vs. Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld and Cheney, with Bush the prize and Rice spinning with whoever is winning the day.