Why focusing on Al-Qaeda is Stupid

Toronto police arrested 17 people on charges of attempted terrorism today - Chicago Tribune story. The suspects are said to have been "inspired by Al Qaeda".

This case illustrates why it is stupid to focus on Al Qaeda itself - to almost any extent whatsoever - in attempts to protect US citizens from terror attacks:

• The attacks on 9/11 involved 17 attackers and roughly $500k. It was not a large effort, neither in terms of personnel nor in terms of finances.
• Now that Al Qaeda has shown the way, it is easy (in fact, predictable) for copycat groups to mimic Al Qaeda techniques.
• The supply of suicidal misfits, willing to sacrifice their own lives (either immediately, or via life imprisonment after the fact) is nearly limitless.
• Once a group has attained a reasonable size, the financial requirements for an attack are, likewise, not significant.
• While Islamic fundamentalism provides one motivation for indiscriminate attacks, it is by no means the only viable such motive. Consider, for example, the second-worst terror attack in American history, the Oklahoma City bombing.

The appropriate fraction of terror prevention efforts that should be devoted to any single group can therefore be roughly estimated by dividing the group membership by the total number of social misfits in the country/world, which - even in the case of Al Qaeda - is negligible.